#加密市场反弹

The latest CPI data from the U.S. recorded at 2.4%, significantly lower than previous levels. It is noteworthy that after the release of this data, the market reacted calmly, with Bitcoin prices showing no boost, and the Nasdaq index continuing to be under pressure, reflecting market skepticism about the credibility of the data.

From a policy logic analysis:

1. **Tariff Inflation Easing**: The inflationary pressure caused by tariffs has gradually been digested.

2. **Policy Target Approaching**: The current CPI (2.4%) is close to the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target.

3. **Recession Risk Persists**: Signs of economic slowdown still constitute a motive for policy adjustment.

Based on the above factors, the assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window period:

- **Baseline Scenario**: Start of the interest rate cut cycle in May-June (Probability 65%)

- **Conservative Scenario**: Implementation by July at the latest (Probability 25%)

- **Policy Flexibility**: The Federal Reserve may smooth the policy transition through expectation management.