#保护你的资产

The latest CPI data from the United States recorded at 2.4%, significantly lower than previous levels. It is worth noting that after the release of this data, the market response was muted, with Bitcoin prices showing no uplift, and the Nasdaq index continuing to be under pressure, reflecting doubts about the credibility of the data.

From a policy logic analysis:

1. **Tariff inflation easing**: The inflation pressures that were initially driven up by tariffs have gradually been digested.

2. **Policy target approaching**: The current CPI (2.4%) is close to the Federal Reserve's 2% policy target.

3. **Recession risks remain**: Signs of economic slowdown still constitute a motive for policy adjustment.

Based on the above factors, the assessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut window period:

- **Baseline scenario**: Initiate the rate cut cycle in May-June (probability 65%)

- **Conservative scenario**: Implement at the latest by July (probability 25%)

- **Policy flexibility**: The Federal Reserve may smooth the policy transition through expectation management.