The market has gone round and round, ultimately still fulfilling Uncle Three's earlier expectations. One must say, no matter how flashy or wild the market behaves, it ultimately cannot escape logic.

Yesterday in the A-share market, the national team took the lead, and private enterprises played a supporting role, with the familiar **'national dignity market'** officially debuting. The limit-up surge came one after another, and the market's confidence is finally not just talk.

What truly changed market sentiment was that moment—last evening, the Ministry of Commerce directly announced an additional 50-point tariff, a reciprocal strike. This move was long anticipated. They've already raised the stakes; if they don't continue to increase the bet now, that would be a real loss.

But what was unexpected was that last night, Trump suddenly started giving out benefits: delaying the implementation of tariffs for all countries except for East University by 90 days, while East University’s tariffs were raised to 125% and remain unchanged.

The capital market took off directly, with all three major US indices rebounding sharply, recovering almost a week's drop in just one day. Bitcoin also didn't lag, shooting directly above 82,000, and all risk assets suddenly switched to smiling faces.

Now the question arises.

Has the market reversed?

Uncle Three's answer remains clear:

The market rebound is already on the way; a market reversal is still far off.

Especially with the release of this CPI data tonight, which further fueled the market.

The latest March CPI year-on-year in the US dropped from 2.8% last month to 2.4%, and the core CPI year-on-year finally slid from 3.1% to 2.8%. More importantly, the CPI month-on-month recorded -0.1%, which is real negative growth.

This kind of data is what the market loves most. Because it means that the pressure on the Federal Reserve has indeed lessened, and theoretically, the space for rate cuts has increased.

So what you see is tonight's textbook-level reaction:

  • US stocks surged, US bond rates plummeted.

  • Gold and silver shot up sharply.

  • Bitcoin made a second upward push, once again approaching 82,000.

But here, Uncle Three still needs to say things upfront.

The expectation of rate cuts returning does not mean the market will directly reverse; good data does not mean a bull market is coming immediately.

This time's CPI did suppress the market's concerns about high inflation, but the core CPI still hasn't turned around and plummeted. The Federal Reserve also hasn't stated that a rate cut in June is definite; at most, the market has changed 'no cut' to 'possible cut.'

In other words, this is still a beautiful tactical rebound, not a strategic reversal.

Standing in this position, Uncle Three's viewpoint is very simple.

A drop means chips are given away; a rise means profits are realized.

Don't fantasize about a bull market descending from the sky, nor miss out on the short-term capital feast.

Whether the market goes or not, the key is never in the news, but in the chips you hold.

Especially at this position, what you fear most is not the decline, but the fear of buying when it rises, the hesitation to catch it when it falls, the fear of heights when it rises, and the questioning of life when it falls.

This is the true way to die.

Back to the data aspect, yesterday Bitcoin spot ETF continued to see a net outflow of 127 million USD, marking the fifth consecutive day of outflows. Ethereum ETF had a net outflow of 11.19 million USD, and the market's real status is quite clear—

Short-term trading can be done, but the sustainability of the market still depends on the ultimate release of macro liquidity.

And this ultimate catalyst is not today, not tomorrow; it might take a little longer.

But this does not prevent the market from giving enough space to smart people during this process.

BTC: The battlefield for the 48-hour showdown has yielded results, with the bulls significantly leading. Coupled with the current macro narrative, the upward push after a brief adjustment has posed no significant difficulty. The pressure levels for Bitcoin on the hourly and four-hour charts are both at 84,000 points, with 88,000 points being a short-term daily pivot. Assuming no premature reversal occurs, these levels will undergo necessary fluctuations. The support level on the four-hour chart is at 79,500 points, where re-entry is possible. Overall, the bearish factors have mostly been released; now we will see how the bullish factors unfold step by step.

ETH: Briefly correlated with Bitcoin, the technical aspect shows no inclination for an independent market, and overall, it still remains in a very weak state.

The panic greed index is 39 for the day.

Tomorrow, the latest batch of ambush lists will be released!

Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on physical goods!#CPI数据来袭 #特朗普暂停新关税 $BTC