Evening analysis
The critical point of the CPI is coming soon, and the whole world is waiting. Will it be a northward assault on longs or a southward hunt for shorts?
Will the market ignited by the 90-day truce on tariffs receive a heavy blow tonight?
First, let's look at a piece of data:
The Bitcoin reserves on Binance have increased from 568,768 BTC (March 28) to 590,874 BTC (April 9), an increase of 22,106 BTC. This indicates that the inflow of BTC into Binance has significantly increased. Due to macro uncertainties and the upcoming CPI announcement, investors are likely actively moving funds to Binance.
Are these 20,000 BTC added to Binance to increase its liquidity or to dump them tonight?
Moreover, the impact of tariffs has made the crypto market less rational, with increased volatility. This is clearly not a good thing. Everyone knows that food must be eaten bite by bite, and roads must be walked step by step. After experiencing a double bottom at 74, BTC suddenly surged nearly $10,000, with three consecutive days of fluctuations between 5-7k. In this scenario of mutual destruction for bulls and bears, risk-averse funds are clearly deterred. Who wouldn't choose the more stable gold with stronger consensus?
From the trend, BTC is under significant pressure at the 88,815 level. A single pillar completely engulfs it. Is it likely to choose to reverse with volume in such an environment without major positive factors? Not really. The prolonged sideways movement at the bottom has slightly exceeded expectations. Originally, the chips above 80,000 had been suppressed for a month, so there’s no reason for it to bounce back every time it touches 70,000. Thus, the bottom-building at lower levels remains unstable, making the reasons for shorting at the 83-845 level greater. The downtrend channel's moving averages are diverging, with each layer of moving average serving as resistance. A reversal signal must overlap between the pillar and the line! Of course, the 2-hour bottom divergence of BTC is currently rebounding and digesting, and the 829 head and shoulders pattern still has potential! The view remains to head south! Where to? In the short term, we should retest the support at 78 here. 74 is certainly not an absolute bottom, but it’s not too far from the bottom either. Just wait for new price levels to enter!
Let's take another look at Ethereum. There are a lot of criticisms, but my view is very simple: this is already the bottom, and even if it isn't, we're very close. Just look left and right. If it pulls back to the 1410 level, consider entering again. My position is here, having taken some profit at 1635, and I can hold the rest. The new resistance is at 1735-1800, and if it goes above 17, I will set up short positions. Ethereum also needs a bottom-building period here! We should expect the upgrade on May 7, even if we don't want to!
I don't think there's any hesitation about the 95 for Sol. Just wait for another touch to enter. Buy more as it falls; it’s really just a matter of holding for two months!
