Tonight at 20:30 Beijing time, the U.S. CPI data for March will be released. The current dilemma for the Federal Reserve: Should they cut rates to offset tariffs (positive for the cryptocurrency market) or raise rates to combat inflation (negative for the cryptocurrency market)?

If the CPI is higher than expected, it will be negative for the cryptocurrency market and may drop slightly; if lower than expected, it will be positive for the cryptocurrency market and U.S. stocks.

From the current perspective, this data is not very significant because it does not include the additional tariffs besides the 20% on China, not to mention the 10% basic tariff that only starts on April 2.

However, this CPI data can still be seen as a reference point before and after the full implementation of the new tariffs. According to market expectations, the previous CPI was 2.8%, and the market expectation is 2.6%, indicating that even with a 20% tariff increase on China, U.S. inflation is still on a downward trend. This would be the best countermeasure for the Federal Reserve. After the full implementation of the new tariffs, if the CPI data rises, they can shift the blame entirely to Trump.

From the current market predictions, broad inflation is decreasing, both year-over-year and month-over-month rates are down, while the core inflation year-over-year rate is down, and the month-over-month rate has a slight increase. Additionally, inflation data regarding used cars, rents, and services need to be monitored, as lower inflation data is definitely better.

Technical Analysis:

Yesterday's analysis and the bearish stance discussed in last night's session emphasized not shorting but rather looking for long opportunities on pullbacks. After experiencing a rebound yesterday, the market is currently undergoing a corrective phase. Today, attention should be paid to the CPI and the opening of the U.S. stock market at 9:30. Bitcoin is expected to remain in a consolidation phase. Support for BTC is at 80600-80000-79200, while resistance is at 83200-83900; for ETH, support is at 1545-1500, and resistance is at 1670-1760. The market is currently undergoing a one-hour correction, and given the news flow, it's crucial to set take-profit and stop-loss levels when trading. Consider shorting at resistance levels.