#特朗普暂停新关税

U.S. President Trump announced on April 9, 2025, a 90-day suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" for most countries, while maintaining a 10% baseline tariff during this period. This decision was mainly influenced by the following factors:

1. Bond market turmoil: U.S. Treasury bonds faced massive sell-offs, with the 30-year Treasury yield surging nearly 60 basis points in three days, briefly surpassing the 5% mark. Internal concerns within the Treasury about market risks became the core reason for suspending tariffs.

2. Economic consequence concerns: If the bond sell-off continues, it could trigger the most severe financial crisis since 1981. Wall Street generally believes that while suspending tariffs may stabilize the market in the short term, the volatility of the policy has intensified uncertainty.

3. Multiple pressures: Republican lawmakers, business executives, and Wall Street allies pressured Trump through calls and meetings to reconsider the tariff policy. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that a recession could be a "possible outcome" of the new tariffs.

It is noteworthy that Trump simultaneously imposed a 125% tariff on China, aiming to force concessions from China during negotiations through extreme pressure. The current market reaction is polarized: the three major U.S. stock indices recorded their largest single-day gains in history, but institutions like Goldman Sachs still predict a 45% probability of recession in the next 12 months.