A series of operations as fierce as a tiger, the market's fluctuations are all based on the unpredictable behavior of this market. The ups and downs depend entirely on the moves of the 'king of understanding'. Trump's policies change faster than flipping a book; they change just like that, leaving everyone dizzy. This kind of abrupt changes by the 'king of understanding' are not new. Trump pauses additional tariffs on all countries for 90 days! If Trump backs down, the global market can rise.
This world is just a huge makeshift stage! Trump makes a big move, but the capital market doesn't buy it.
Attention! Trump is stirring things up again, unexpectedly raising the tariffs on rabbits to 125%, and he said, 'The final slap must be delivered by me.'
What is surprising is that after the news broke, the capital market didn't take it seriously at all, and stock prices and cryptocurrency prices kept soaring.
Take Bitcoin for example, that 7% rapid increase—if you missed it, there's no need to feel regret. Why? This wave of market movement is not at all about technical analysis; it’s purely triggered by Trump's words, igniting market sentiment instantly, leading everyone to follow suit and resulting in this unexpected surge.
Tonight, the U.S. CPI data for March will be released.
Currently, due to the 90-day tariff extension, the market has significantly reduced bets on a rate cut in May. To be honest, these traders are really too rational!
The CPI and PCE data for May are difficult to reflect the overall impact, and it will gradually manifest starting in June. The Fed's minutes show no intention to cut rates early and still rely on future employment and economic data.
If Japan raises interest rates in May and the U.S. doesn't cut rates in June, the combination could lead to another round of volatility and decline.
In summary: In the absence of Trump continuing his antics, the negative impact of tariffs has temporarily landed. Cryptocurrency may experience a small bull market in May between Japan's interest rate meetings; if Japan does not raise rates, the market will continue to ease. Therefore, the risk lies in May, and if the U.S. cuts rates in June, Bitcoin is expected to return to high levels in June.
The pessimistic scenario is that the CPI is likely to rise month by month, as the decoupling of China and the U.S. seems almost inevitable. As time goes on, the market grows increasingly anxious about the deadline for the 90-day tariff suspension, while the Fed, seeing the CPI rise, will only continue to delay its rate cut plans. As a result, by June and July, the market may repeat the recent panic scene.
So, everyone should be aware that in the rebound market over the next two months, it’s essential to stay cautious and not let the temporary rise cloud your judgment. Prepare in advance to cope with potential risks.
