Don't underestimate this energetic old man.
This is not a makeshift team. Don't underestimate the King of Understanding.
Trump has come this far.
Not just brute strength, but also his beliefs, talents and abilities.
It started with one person's bullying against everyone.
The panic that has caused everyone to turn against everyone,
Achieve the result of everyone against one person.
This is the logical loop of Trump’s tariffs.
The whole internet is calling Trump and Musk idiots
The two of them turned the market into a monkey market.
Yes, that’s right, the market has turned into a monkey market.
But don't forget, they are not stupid.
Trump is a big boss, Musk is a bigger boss.
A political novice, crushing the old forces in the White House twice
A Silicon Valley madman has seven companies monopolizing space, automobiles, energy, social networking, brain-computers, etc., and the whole universe knows it.
In fact, we are the clowns. Are they stupid?
Yes, not stupid, we need to recognize the essence.
Musk believes that America’s problem is excessive waste and spending money beyond its means.
Trump believes that the United States has several problems: underdeveloped real economy, too much waste, too many immigrants, and the status of the United States is threatened by the East...
Both of them wanted to save the empire, both of them wanted to nurse America back to health.
So the prescriptions that are constantly being issued
For example, an efficiency committee was to be established to help the empire save money;
For example, we need to build a wall to keep out illegal immigrants;
For example, they want to increase tariffs and increase revenue and reduce expenditure to cover up the purpose of isolating the University of Tokyo.
For example, we need to reduce taxes and encourage people to set up factories and start businesses...
In the short term, these tactics will hurt the market. When the leeks stare at the K-line and cry for mercy, the Wall Street traders have already figured out the strategic depth:
First, detonate the policy nuclear bomb to complete debt clearance.
Using tariffs to dismantle the global supply chain,
Various policies serve as reservoirs to regulate labor inflation.
While the short sellers are picking up pennies from the ruins, the White House only needs to open the floodgates of interest rate cuts, forcing a return of funds and reconstructing the harvesting cycle of the dollar tide.
First make the whole world your enemy
Then use the prisoner’s dilemma effect and use military support to force the whole world to launch a comprehensive new economic Cold War against China.
The goal is to defeat China and make it follow the old path of the Soviet Union, disintegrate and split, so as to achieve his dream of making America great again.
This is not a makeshift team. Don't underestimate this "great" president.
The more they curse now, the more they will kneel down and lick the policy dividends in the future. This is the bloody art of top-level design.
1. Trump’s Grand Strategy
It started with one person's bullying against everyone.
Causing panic that turns everyone against everyone,
Achieve the result of everyone against one person.
This is the logical loop of Trump’s tariffs.
China is the world's second largest economy and ranks first in terms of GDP in terms of purchasing power parity.
China and the United States are twin superpowers.
However, the tariff on China is 124%.
There is no respect in the attitude.
China needs respect the most.
The whole process denies actual contact.
China has expressed its willingness to negotiate.
China's official media commented that Washington is advancing its hegemonic ambitions at the expense of the legitimate interests of all countries.
The unspoken picture is to force all countries to follow the United States and isolate China.
In fact, this tariff war is complicated and its only goal is to isolate China and maintain the global status of the United States. In fact, Trump decided to return to the Cold War and turn the East into the Soviet Union.
final,
Just like we brought down the Soviet Union, we will bring down the great Eastern country.
This is a grand strategy specifically targeting China.
He has been planning this for a long time and he deserves death.
2. The core of containment strategy
Let us first look at the longer-term picture.
Towards the Soviet Union, the mortal enemy of the Cold War,
America's grand strategy is George Kennan's containment.
However, political containment could not bring down the Soviet Union, and military containment was also useless.
What really works is economic containment.
The core of the containment strategy
It is to establish such an economic system:
Damage to Moscow, benefit to Washington.
All nations that are free to choose know that the benefits of an alliance with the United States are greater than those of an alliance with the Soviet Union.
Because Moscow can support the ruler of a country, but it does not have the strength to support a country.
The United States can do both at the same time.
The solution is free trade.
Free trade is unfair to the United States.
Free trade that weakens the U.S. economy and increases the power of client states.
It was through unequal tariffs and generous foreign aid that the United States rebuilt Western Europe and fostered emerging Third World economies.
Isolate and destroy the Soviet Union.
It eventually brought down the Soviet Union.
China's accession to the WTO is an epic continuation of this grand strategy of the United States.
The United States imagines that in the post-Cold War Garden of Eden, China and the United States will always be of one mind and will always be willing to accept vassal status.
The United States can do this.
It is based on the strong strength after World War II.
Based on the Anglo-European tradition of closeness,
Based on Protestant culture's compassion for all human beings.
But the United States still paid a heavy price.
The United States, which once produced the most steel industrial products in human history, now has to rely on foreign production for its economic system.
To be precise, it was MAGA Americans who paid a heavy price.
Industries in red and swing states are collapsing in closures, and Trump voters are dying from fentanyl.
3. New geopolitics
This economic system is already in jeopardy over time.
The geopolitical landscape has undergone tremendous changes.
Once upon a time, despite the distinction between progressive liberalism and conservative liberalism, Americans believed that both parties were descendants of Anglo-Protestantism.
But now MAGA Party Americans have discovered that the Democratic Party and they are no longer compatible. Once upon a time, despite the differences between the inside and the outside, Americans believed that the United States and Europe originated from the same civilization.
But now MAGA Americans have discovered that
Britain is on its way to becoming the first Muslim country to possess nuclear weapons; France is trying to stop the flood of people by sentencing political candidates to prison; German citizens can be jailed for posting memes that the government deems to be racist or misogynistic.
What's worse is that it is precisely relying on non-tariff barriers and defense dependence on the United States that
These vile parasites of the left and the establishment right,
Only then could we have the doomsday carnival.
Once upon a time, despite the differences between developed and developing countries, Americans believed that the whole world yearned for the United States.
But now MAGA Americans have discovered that
These people came to the United States, burned the American flag, raped and killed American women, and demanded that white Americans repent for the color of their skin.
For Western Europe and the Third World, the new geopolitical situation is no longer worth MAGA Americans sacrificing themselves for.
That’s not all.
By outsourcing production to them,
Strikes and riots in left-wing Europe, rebellions and coups in the Third World,
It could affect the supply of basic products to the United States at any time and harm the national security of the United States.
4. Free trade,
The risks to MAGA Americans already outweigh the benefits.
At the same time, the remnants of Cold War geopolitics have completely disappeared.
Russia has turned the Russian-Ukrainian war into a stalemate.
Exposing the irreversible decline of its military and economic power.
Trump can now abandon the containment strategy against Russia with greater confidence.
This means,
Never again will he sacrifice MAGA America to feed ungrateful Europe.
5. China
However, there is no going back to the old days.
The United States is weakening itself and killing each other internally. Europe is ungrateful and reveling in doomsday. The Third World is in a state of confusion and is committed to reverse assimilation of the United States and Europe.
Smart and hardworking China has risen at the speed of light from the ruins of the old geopolitics, becoming a towering independent landmark, committed to the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
Trump is panicking about
Key manufacturing industries such as chips, shipbuilding, pharmaceuticals, steel, and drones,
Even aircraft carrier chips,
They can’t live without China.
He panicked.
The United States' artillery shell manufacturing capabilities are even struggling to keep up with Russia, whose economy is less than one-tenth the size of the United States.
What's even more terrifying is that
Trump seems to be trapped in the Dark Forest Curse.
He believes that by 2027, the Western Pacific will undergo earth-shaking changes.
He decided to take action ahead of time.
Recalibrate America's economy, refinance America's debt, and rebalance America's trade.
6. New containment strategy
But the University of Tokyo is not the Soviet Union.
During the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, the allies explicitly agreed to conduct very little trade with the enemy.
In 2024, the total trade in goods between the EU and China was US$785.8 billion, and the EU's trade deficit was approximately US$247.1 billion.
The total value of merchandise trade between the EU and the US was $975.9 billion, with the US running a trade deficit of $235.6 billion.
The total value of merchandise trade between China and the United States was US$582.4 billion, with the US running a trade deficit of US$295.4 billion.
This is not called a cold war, this is called being inseparable.
Trump's new containment strategy is clear:
There are 185 economies on the tariff list; the only enemy is the East;
No longer adopt free trade among allies; weaken all countries, especially the left and establishment right in Europe; force all countries to choose sides; follow the United States in opposing China.
This is not Truman's containment strategy. This is the struggle for hegemony between Qi and Chu during the Spring and Autumn Period.
This was the Athens-Sparta war in the Peloponnese.
Third-party countries have no choice but to obey in order to avoid greater losses. There is no room for playing both sides and profiting from it.
Last time, the trade strategy was created based on the Cold War. This time, the Cold War is created with the trade strategy.
7. Containment
The amount of tariffs imposed on China, the arrogance of taking whatever they want, and the indifference of refusing to engage,
It is a direct path to block the export of Chinese products.
High tariffs on Vietnam [46%], Thailand [36%], Indonesia [32%], and Cambodia [49%],
It is a transshipment strategy to block the export of Chinese products.
Vietnam and Southeast Asia have become a conduit for Chinese products to enter the U.S. Nearly a third of new investment in Vietnam comes from Chinese companies.
Taxation of the Australian overseas territories of Heard Island and McDonald Islands,
The island is teeming with penguins and uninhabited, which is the real logic behind this absurd behavior.
Canada and Mexico were fortunately exempted from the new tariffs, however, one of the main US demands in the renegotiation of the USMCA free trade agreement was that these two countries bring their tariffs on China in line with the United States.
This is to create a new North American Free Trade Group, led by the United States and excluding China.
Even if the EU agrees to zero tariffs on cars and industrial products, Trump will not let it go.
Resentful of Europe's so-called non-tariff barriers of value-added taxes, currency manipulation, dumping, export subsidies and fake standards,
The same attitude is applied to the zero tariffs that Vietnam was the first to agree to. This is to squeeze the fishing space of the allies, making it even more difficult for them to trade with China.
The purpose of all this is to keep Chinese products out of the United States and, as much as possible, out of China.
Even the anti-Trump tariff hysteria media Wall Street Journal,
They all pointed out the anomaly here: Trump is stepping up pressure on China while opening the door to negotiations with other countries.
The New York Times lamented: Global leaders are scrambling to show goodwill to Trump, hoping to influence him on the issue of tariffs.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant boasted that as many as 70 countries want to negotiate on Trump's tariffs.
Because the ancient Greek saying is so cruel:
The strong do whatever they want, and the weak suffer what they suffer.
Trump is speaking like an Athenian envoy to the Minoans:
You must choose between us and Dongda.
If you don't stand by us,
I will destroy you.
Whether it is through tariffs, withdrawing troops, or even condoning Russia's attack.
8. Alliance
The new containment strategy not only tries to cut off China and the United States, but also tries to separate China from other countries.
The same is true for reading traditional media.
The Atlantic says: Trade will go on without the United States.
The Washington Post said: China and other U.S. trading partners have established trauma bonds.
The Economist says: Trump's tariffs may ultimately make China great again.
The real world requires a more cautious understanding.
The New York Times exclaimed:
The tsunami hits.
The latest data from the People's Bank of China shows that
Over the past four years, state-owned banks have extended an additional $1.9 trillion in loans to industrial borrowers.
For decades, the world's largest car factory has been Volkswagen's plant in Wolfsburg, Germany. But Chinese electric car maker BYD is building two factories in China that can each produce twice as many cars as the Wolfsburg plant.
China's global share of manufacturing has increased from 6% in 2000 to 32% and is still rising. The output of Chinese factories is greater than the combined total of the manufacturing industries of the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom.
Investment and progress in China's manufacturing sector are triggering a wave of exports.
From Brazil and Indonesia to Thailand and the European Union,
They are all raising tariffs on China, but they haven't made it as public as Trump has.
The Wall Street Journal's news report acknowledged that Trump's tariffs were bad for Europe.
But closer ties with China are not a panacea and could come at a high cost, including the loss of its historic auto industry.
How does this traumatic bond confront the inherent conflicts between China and the world outside the United States?
How did this tsunami turn into waves of laughter that bathed the world outside China and the United States?
It’s a huge test.
9. US Dollar
The trump card to isolate Dongda is the so-called Mar-a-Lago Agreement.
It was developed by Trump, Scott Bessant, and his chief economic adviser Stephen Milan.
The steps are,
Through tariffs,
Disrupt the existing economic order.
Forcing countries to sit down at the negotiating table,
Countries will be asked to take steps through currency agreements,
Lower the value of the dollar,
To reduce the U.S. trade deficit.
The whole world says,
Trump, how did you smash your golden rice bowl?
The United States enjoys an exorbitant privilege.
It is precisely because of the strong US dollar that
Therefore, some deficit costs are incurred.
What does that matter?
Trump said,
This privilege is now useless.
America has reached doomsday:
Manufacturing is in decline, economic inequality is spreading, the country is deeply in debt, and it needs to provide military protection to so-called allies - many of whom are now actually enemies of our values.
And all this,
The first thing to be destroyed is MAGA.
Lower the value of the dollar,
This will cause China’s dollar assets to shrink and China’s exports to suffer.
China holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves of about $3.25 trillion.
The IMF estimates that the US dollar may account for 60% of this.
This is actually waging a financial war against China.
Jennifer Burns, associate professor of history at Stanford University, acknowledges that
Trump's crazy tariffs and financial wars are aimed at isolating China from the world economy.
Trump's strategy is chaotic but orderly. It is hard to predict success or failure, but the strategy is clear. (Most of the content and opinions are provided by Mr. Wei)
10 The New Cold War
The new Cold War deliberately created by Trump has arrived.
A huge network to isolate China is being insidiously woven.
Let’s take a look at the world today and see who rules the world.
Seeing through the calculations of this old fox, Trump, the end is clear - he will not go against globalization at all, but will reshuffle global cooperation under the banner of "America First" and use the tariff stick to squeeze people out of their bones. The interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, in May, June or September? It's just a game of time.
So if you are not so impatient, you can and should invest in both US stocks and Bitcoin in batches or fixed amounts. As for the fluctuations in the middle, what does it have to do with you? It is just noise for cowards.
$BTC $ETH $SOL
