The trade war has now entered a heated phase. As the saying goes, 'there are no winners,' but from the perspective of active versus passive roles, Country M holds the advantage of being the initiator, while Country C is more in a defensive state. However, Country C's tough stance indicates that it is not unprepared. Policy adjustments in recent years (such as emphasizing internal circulation and supply chain autonomy) show that Country C has long anticipated further pressure from Country M, so even if losses are inevitable, Country C seems to have prepared a defensive baseline.
Concerns about a 'collapse of the yuan' may not be valid in the short term. Country C's exports are primarily composed of daily consumer goods, and even if foreign sales are obstructed, it is highly likely to shift towards domestic sales. Considering Country C's massive market capacity and manufacturing base, basic materials are unlikely to experience inflation; rather, they may face price deflation due to oversupply, further reducing costs. In this scenario, the direct pressure on the depreciation of the yuan is not evident. Moreover, Country C's position in the global supply chain is difficult to replace in the short term; even if Country M intensifies restrictions, the import of basic materials can be supplemented through other countries (such as Southeast Asia and Europe), with limited cost increases. As for high-end products, although restrictions on imports from Country M will have some impact, Country C's capabilities in chip manufacturing and 5G have been improving in recent years, and its status as a manufacturing powerhouse is not merely rhetoric.
However, the main impact is still concentrated on the chain reaction resulting from obstructed exports. Although Country C has a large domestic demand, it may not be able to fully absorb the scale of an export-oriented economy. If Country M subsequently uses a 'team alignment' strategy to rally allies to further block Country C's exports (for example, through tariff barriers or technology embargoes), foreign trade enterprises in Country C may face shrinking orders, and rising unemployment will become a significant risk. Moreover, the intensification of the trade war may affect confidence in financial markets, leading to tighter global liquidity, which could have a greater impact on high-risk asset areas—especially the cryptocurrency market.
From the perspective of the cryptocurrency market, the intensification of the trade war may bring multiple impacts. In the short term, the global risk aversion sentiment may drive up the demand for stablecoins (such as USDT, USDC), while mainstream cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin may face pressure due to the flow of funds into traditional safe-haven assets (such as gold and the US dollar). In particular, concept coins related to export enterprises or supply chains in Country C (such as logistics and manufacturing tokenization projects) may experience a selling wave due to expectations of shrinking orders. At the same time, if Country M further tightens financial sanctions on Country C (such as restricting US dollar settlement channels), investors in Country C may accelerate capital outflows, with some hot money flowing into the cryptocurrency market seeking safe-haven or arbitrage opportunities, temporarily increasing trading volume but also intensifying volatility.
However, in the long run, the trade war may bring structural opportunities to the cryptocurrency market. If traditional trade is obstructed, Country C may actively promote the internationalization of the digital yuan, attempting to bypass the US dollar-dominated settlement system. As the world's first central bank digital currency (CBDC), the promotion of the digital yuan may stimulate cross-border applications of blockchain technology, indirectly benefiting the public chain ecosystem (such as Ethereum, Solana, etc.). Additionally, if Country C deepens trade cooperation with non-Western countries (such as along the 'Belt and Road' initiative), the adoption rate of cryptocurrencies in these regions may increase, further expanding the market boundaries of the cryptocurrency sector.
The trade war poses more challenges than opportunities for Country C, but its resilience and strategic reserves prevent it from falling into collapse. The short-term response of the cryptocurrency market is more dependent on global market sentiment and liquidity, and it may experience a trend of 'initial suppression followed by recovery.' Specifically:
1. **Short-term impact**: The escalation of the trade war may lead to increased volatility in Country C's stock market and cryptocurrency market, especially putting pressure on concept coins related to small and medium-sized enterprises, with an increase in stablecoin trading volume.
2. **Policy response**: Country C may stimulate domestic demand through measures such as reducing reserve requirements and subsidies, while accelerating the process of de-dollarization; the promotion of the digital yuan may become a potential catalyst for the cryptocurrency market.
3. **Global game**: If Country M encourages more countries to align, Country C may turn to deepen trade cooperation with non-Western countries, indirectly increasing demand for cryptocurrencies in these regions.
