Trade war? Trump, I'm sorry, you fell into the ambush circle of the Eastern Great Power. The real economic scale of the Eastern Great is equivalent to 1.3 times that of the United States. The foundation of the dollar is shaken, hold onto BTC.
At the beginning of this round of trade war, we all noticed that the Eastern Great's countermeasures were unusually swift and decisive. This stands in stark contrast to the first US-China trade war, where trade representatives were sent for negotiations and there were calls between heads of state.
After the US tariffs on China were raised to 124%, any further increases are essentially meaningless, as the Eastern Great has effectively suspended exports to the US. Under reciprocal countermeasures, US exports to China have also stagnated, while the Eastern Great has proactively expanded the scope of the trade war to include service trade, which seems to further actively guide the escalation of the situation.
Trump was basically unprepared for the swift and tough countermeasures from the Eastern Great. After he first raised tariffs on China this year, he boasted about waiting for a call from the Chinese leader 'within 48 hours', but after being left hanging, he still hasn't realized that the initiative is no longer in his hands. After imposing an additional 50% punitive tariff on the Eastern Great yesterday (bringing the total tariff to 124%), he loudly proclaimed that the Eastern Great had 24 hours to 'retract and correct.' As a result, today he received another 50% punitive tariff imposed by the Eastern Great on the US.
Considering that the decision-making process of the Eastern Great is relatively more serious and procedural compared to Trump's 'flexible randomness,' significant decisions cannot be made so quickly. This means that the decision-making body of the Eastern Great has long prepared countermeasures, and the current situation is completely within the foresight of the Eastern Great's trigger plan. From this perspective, Trump is likely being skillfully guided into a strategic dilemma based on his personal character and potential decision-making style.
In contrast to Trump’s somewhat hysterical panic, the Eastern Great has played its trade cards steadily, quickly, and ruthlessly this time, and it even seems to be actively escalating the situation. No proactive communication, no compromise, no adjustments.
After the interruption of US-China trade, the world may gradually realize who holds a more important position in global trade, and who is the true leading economy and trading nation. It must be noted that, as I mentioned before, due to the impact of its status as an international reserve currency and the demand for financial settlement, the dollar is significantly overvalued relative to the real economic strength of the United States. According to calculations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, if GDP is calculated based on the real purchasing power of currency, that is, what one dollar can truly buy rather than the exchange rate in the foreign exchange market, or the purchasing power parity (PPP), the GDP of the Eastern Great surpassed that of the United States as early as 2014, and now the economic volume of the Eastern Great has reached 1.3 times that of the US.
According to the current exchange rate between the dollar and the yuan, the Eastern Great's manufacturing accounts for 33.5% of the global total, while US manufacturing accounts for 16.8%. The manufacturing capacity of the US is only half that of the Eastern Great, and when calculated by PPP, it is estimated that the true manufacturing capacity of the US only accounts for about 8% of the global total, comparable to Japan, slightly above Germany, with only about a quarter of the manufacturing scale of the Eastern Great.
Considering that Japan has a population of 124 million, Germany has only 84 million, and the US has as many as 340 million, it is evident what scale the hollowing out of US manufacturing has reached due to the side effects of the dollar being continuously overvalued as an international reserve currency over the decades since World War II.
The dollar, as an international currency, can be printed to buy anything, bringing great prosperity to several generations of Americans. Americans do not need to 'struggle' to achieve a stable and wealthy life; this is the myth of America's 'money power.' However, this 'money power' has been subtly corroded over decades, and the side effects have finally been exposed to the world, resembling the ghostly presence of the One Ring in the movie (The Lord of the Rings), possessing powerful magic yet corrupting the soul.
Trump's anxiety may stem from his realization of the true situation, yet he misjudges that he can still turn the tide; however, it may already be too late. The US has missed the strategic window to take proactive actions, and now it seems he has launched a challenge without understanding the gravity of the situation. I previously thought that the Eastern Great might accompany him for a while, but it appears that, for now, the Eastern Great may no longer intend to give him a chance.
On the surface, it seems that this trade war was initiated by the US, and the Eastern Great appears to be the passive counterparty. However, it fits the classic saying that 'the best hunters often appear as prey,' and the Eastern Great is the true hunter in this game. Now, the Eastern Great has painstakingly lured the prey into a pre-prepared strategic trap, allowing the US led by Trump to rush into the Eastern Great's pre-set ambush circle; of course, they won't easily let the prey go.
Unless Trump is willing to pay a sufficient price.
After an economic war, the credit foundation of the dollar is likely to be significantly impacted, and asset prices will undergo revaluation. BTC must be held firmly. Perhaps the process may be very bumpy, but just as gold has undergone thousands of years of wars and various crises to form a consensus process in human society, this is a test that BTC must go through, and it will also be its rite of passage towards one million dollars.
$BTC $BNB $DOGE
