Today's Outlook
1. U.S. February unemployment rate: Previous value 4.00%, forecast value 4.00%;
2. U.S. February seasonally adjusted non-farm employment population (in ten thousand): Previous value 14.3, forecast value 16;
3. The White House cryptocurrency summit will begin at 2:30 AM (UTC+8) on Saturday, March 8.
Macro & Hotspots
1. David Sacks, the White House AI and cryptocurrency director, stated that President Trump has signed an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, funded by assets seized from criminal or civil forfeiture, without involving taxpayer funds. The U.S. government estimates it holds about 200,000 Bitcoins and will conduct a comprehensive audit. Bitcoins already deposited in the reserve will not be sold. Additionally, the order establishes a U.S. digital asset reserve to manage seized digital assets other than Bitcoin, operated by the Treasury, and the government will not make additional purchases.
2. Influenced by the previous day's increase in Trump’s crypto project WLFI, $MOVE hit a short-term new high. Today, Movement officials officially announced that the mainnet will go live on March 10, with the official supported MEME issuance platform Gmeme continuously taking action, potentially sparking a new round of speculative activities; the market is focusing on ecological opportunities.
3. The cross-chain data oracle RedStone has sparked strong dissatisfaction in the community over airdrop distribution issues, leading CEX to temporarily suspend its listing. The community accused it of suddenly increasing thresholds in the final rules, rendering about 98% of users ineligible to receive allocations, while the airdrop proportion significantly shrank, causing widespread controversy. Subsequently, RedStone announced that it would allocate an additional 2% of the total RED token supply to appease community sentiment.
4. Trump announced a delay in imposing a 25% tariff on goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) until April 2, providing short-term trade relief for the two countries. Previously, comprehensive tariff policies led to market risk aversion, putting pressure on both the U.S. stock and crypto markets, with funds flowing into safe-haven assets. As the policy eases temporarily, market sentiment has improved, potentially boosting the strength of Bitcoin and other assets with strong safe-haven attributes.
Market Trends
1. $BTC is experiencing wide fluctuations, hovering around the $90,000 mark; the overall market is in decline, with only $BGB and $BCH in the Top 50 showing positive gains; the new coin $RED may be influenced by social media sentiment, initially rising slightly after opening but then declining.
2. The Nasdaq fell over 2%, entering a correction zone, Nvidia plummeted nearly 6%, and the dollar erased gains post-election. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates as expected, cutting by 25 basis points.
3. In the Bitget BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current price of 90,017 USDT, if it drops a thousand points to around 89,017, the total liquidation amount for long positions exceeds $176 million. If it rises a thousand points to around 91,017, the total liquidation amount for short positions exceeds $81 million. The liquidation amount for the long positions far exceeds that for the short positions, suggesting a reasonable control of leverage ratios to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations amidst market fluctuations.
4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflows amounted to $3.48 billion, outflows were $3.41 billion, resulting in a net inflow of $70 million.
5. In the past 24 hours, contract trading for $BTC, $ETH, $XRP, $SOL, $ADA, etc. has seen a net outflow leading, indicating possible trading opportunities.
6. SoSoValue's latest data shows that the U.S. BTC spot ETF had an outflow of $38.2958 million in a single day, with a cumulative inflow of $3.6688 billion and a total holding scale of $10.2119 billion; the U.S. ETH spot ETF had an outflow of $63.3202 million in a single day, with a cumulative inflow of $2.758 billion and a total holding scale of $8.053 billion. Compared to the previous day, the outflow amounts have significantly increased.
Institutional Perspectives
Glassnode: The crypto strategic reserve has turned into a 'sell the news' event, with the current key price level for BTC at $92,000.
Greeks.live: The options market shows a 33.3% probability of BTC reaching $100,000 by the end of March, and a 48.64% probability by the end of June.
News Updates
1. The Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Bill SB 21 has been passed by Senate vote.
2. The European Central Bank lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.
3. Emirates NBD, a bank under the Dubai government, launched cryptocurrency trading services through the Liv X application.
4. Japan's ruling party proposed to lower the upper limit of the cryptocurrency tax rate to 20%.
Project Progress
1. World has launched the mini-program World Chat, supporting seamless integration with the World App wallet.
2. The Trump family’s crypto project WLFI has collaborated with Sui Network.
3. RedStone: An additional 2% of the total RED tokens will be allocated to omitted community members.
4. Contributors to the Jito Foundation have initiated discussions regarding token buybacks and rewards.
5. UXLINK has reached a collaboration with the Japanese Web3 accelerator Pacific Meta to expand into the Japanese market.
6. Suilend: Services encountered interruptions due to issues with third-party custodial service providers, but funds are safe.
7. Bitget Wallet has integrated into the Sonic ecosystem, supporting market inquiries and trading.
8. Multi-signature wallet Safe: North Korean hacker organization TraderTraitor is behind the previous hacking incident.
9. In the past 24 hours, no graduate tokens on pump.fun have a market value exceeding $1 million.
10. BlackRock has once again purchased Bitcoin after two weeks, currently holding Bitcoin worth approximately $51.9 billion.
X Hotspots
I. Blue Fox: U.S. cryptocurrency strategic reserves, dual defense of dollar hegemony and future currency games.
The essence of building a cryptocurrency strategic reserve in the U.S. is to create a moat for dollar hegemony—on one hand, while cryptocurrency has not yet threatened the dominance of the dollar, controlling its circulation and pricing power through reserves to curb the substitution risk from other countries or supranational digital currencies; on the other hand, laying the groundwork for the potential decline of the dollar in the future. If the traditional fiat currency system is impacted, cryptocurrency could serve as a 'decentralized buffer zone' against emerging currencies (such as digital RMB). This move both delays the disruption of the existing monetary system by cryptocurrencies and reserves the initiative for the U.S. amid global financial changes to consolidate its monetary hegemony.
II. Ice Frog: Redstone airdrop controversy, rule changes, and community trust collapse.
The Redstone project faced severe community backlash due to sudden changes in airdrop rules (new 'special role' thresholds deprived 98% of participants of their qualifications), rampant insider trading (only 4,000 addresses received allocations), and a reduction in community distribution (promised 10% but only 2% was actually issued). The project team long used task points to entice participation but changed the rules at the last minute, betraying community trust and rationalizing harvesting behavior by utilizing the 'compliance halo' after listing on exchanges.
III. Rui: 2025 Crypto Market Outlook: Key trends in policy, liquidity, and innovative projects.
This year's cryptocurrency market will revolve around policy games, liquidity differentiation, and infrastructure innovation—U.S. strategies for building cryptocurrency reserves (like BTC) aim to solidify dollar hegemony, but short-term implementation is limited; market differentiation is intensifying, with speculators (Solana Meme, high-leverage DEX) coexisting with value investors (RWA, compliant stablecoins), while institutional fund flows are dominated by ETF expansion and macro policy; blockchain competition focuses on performance and ecological integration (Solana stabilizing coin prices through SIMD proposals, Hyperliquid connecting trading and contracts with HyperEVM, Monad testnet demonstrating high TPS potential); emerging projects target Web2-Web3 bridges (validator-as-a-service), BTC yield generation, and traditional financial entry points (compliant stablecoins), driving the industry from idealism to commercial transformation, ultimately forming a diverse ecological pattern of decentralization and compliance in parallel.
IV. Hoeem: Survival rules and resilience tests in the intense rotation cycle of the crypto market.
This round of the cryptocurrency market cycle is characterized by unprecedented high volatility and the risk of strategy failure. From Meme coins, AI concepts to RWA tokens, there has been a series of speculative activities, with most asset prices quickly retreating after a brief surge. Investors who fail to take profits in time are at high risk of seeing their returns drop to zero. The market continues to oscillate amid false breakouts and emotional swings, with funds rapidly switching to VC projects, short-term hotspots, and newly launched protocols. However, any lagging positions could be severely wiped out by sharp corrections. The profit window is extremely brief, whether for political tokens or the airdrop dividends of new projects, both require precise timing control and strict profit-taking discipline. This cycle is essentially a 'running game' in a stock game, where only participants who remain present and maintain strategic flexibility can retain their strength amid repeated reshuffling.
#特朗普签署行政命令 #白宫首届加密货币峰会 #MtGox钱包动态
$BTC
