#加密市场回调 Based on market dynamics and historical data since April 2025, the recent correction in the crypto market has been driven by multiple factors; the following is a comprehensive analysis:
One, Core Reasons for the Correction
1. Impact of Trump's Tariff Policy
On April 2, the U.S. announced tariff increases on multiple countries (up to 49%), triggering concerns of a global trade war and prompting investors to sell off risk assets for safety. The total market capitalization of the crypto market evaporated by over 10% in a single day, with Bitcoin falling below the critical support level of $75,000 and Ethereum dropping to $1,458. This policy also raised U.S. inflation expectations, exacerbating the risk of 'stagflation' and further suppressing market sentiment.
2. Failure of Technical Support and High-Leverage Liquidations
Bitcoin triggered a 'death cross' (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average) after falling below $75,000, intensifying technical selling pressure. Meanwhile, the total Bitcoin contract open interest across the network reached $52.3 billion, with high-leverage long positions being forcibly liquidated as prices fell, creating a vicious cycle of 'decline - liquidation - accelerated decline', with liquidation amounts reaching $1.38 billion within 24 hours, affecting 440,000 people.
3. Federal Reserve Policy and Funding Cost Pressure
The current U.S. federal funds rate is at 5.5%, far exceeding the 0.25% during the 2020 halving, with the high-interest rate environment suppressing speculative demand. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of $8.7 billion for three consecutive weeks, with institutional funds shifting towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
4. Anomalous Performance of Halving Cycle Effects
Bitcoin did not continue its historical rising pattern after completing its fourth halving in April 2024; instead, it crashed 11 months later, indicating that the halving effect has been offset by macro policies and funding costs.
Two, Market Performance and Key Data
1. Price and Market Capitalization
- Bitcoin hit a low of $74,550 (a nearly 5-month low), Ethereum fell to $1,458, and mainstream cryptocurrencies generally saw declines exceeding 15%.
- The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies shrank from $2.6 trillion to $2.38 trillion, evaporating over 10% in a single day.
2. Derivatives and Sentiment Indicators
- The crypto fear and greed index plummeted from 'neutral' to 'extreme fear' (25), reaching a new low since October 2024.
- The proportion of long liquidations reached 86%, with the maximum single liquidation amount reaching $13.39 million, reflecting the high leverage trading risk among retail investors.
3. Sector Differentiation
- Most sectors are experiencing corrections, but #SocialFi (TON up 4.49%) and #RWA (PENDLE, MKR, etc. up over 3%) have risen against the trend, indicating a shift of some funds towards counter-cyclical areas.
Three, Future Outlook and Response Strategies#加密市场反弹
1. Key Technical Levels in the Short Term
- If Bitcoin loses the $74,000 level, it may test the $68,000-$70,000 range; Ethereum needs to hold above $1,500, otherwise it may fall to $1,200.
- Focus on the CME futures gap (between $77,000 and $80,000) and the competition between bulls and bears.
2. Policies and Macro Variables
- **Federal Reserve Policy**: If the May FOMC meeting signals a rate cut, it may ease market pressure; if a hawkish stance is maintained, selling risks will continue.
- **Tariff Negotiations**: Tariffs imposed by China on the U.S. officially took effect on April 10, requiring attention to subsequent exemption negotiations and industry impacts.
3. Long-term Value Divergence
- **Bearish Sentiment**: The founder of CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin needs at least six months to bottom out, with little hope for a short-term rebound.
- **Bullish Sentiment**: Bitwise analysts emphasize that Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties are highlighted in a stagflation environment, maintaining a long-term target price of $150,000; Standard Chartered still predicts it will reach $200,000 by 2025 but acknowledges that policy risks may delay the pace.
4.#投资者策略建议
- **Control Leverage**: Avoid high-leverage operations and prioritize reducing position risk.
- **Policy Sensitivity**: Monitor real-time trends in tariffs, regulations, and central bank policies.
- **Dollar-Cost Averaging and Diversified Allocation**: Historical data shows that Bitcoin typically takes an average of 147 days to recover its previous high after a crash; a dollar-cost averaging strategy may outperform market timing; consider allocating to resilient sectors such as SocialFi, RWA, and gold-related assets.
Four, Summary
This correction is not only a technical adjustment but also a result of the reconstruction of the global macroeconomic order (trade friction, interest rate games) resonating with internal risks in the crypto market (leverage, institutional fund withdrawals). Short-term market volatility may persist, but in the long run, Bitcoin's anti-inflation narrative and the maturity of the DeFi ecosystem (such as RWA integration and liquidity staking innovation) still hold potential. Investors need to maintain a balance between risk and opportunity, prioritizing policy inflection points and fundamentally sound targets.
