Woke up from a nap and what's happening? Another crash...
The second test is coming earlier than expected. If BTC falls below 72,000, I might also be confused. What’s the script for the next steps? Can BTC hold today? How bad is the situation for altcoins?
Currently, all altcoins have dropped more than 60% compared to a week ago. Bitcoin is currently revalidating the support level around 74,500. At this moment, no one can say for sure. The current trend is fully following the U.S. stock market, so we need to pay more attention to the macro policies of the U.S.
Are the bulls in pain? It feels quite painful.
Everyone is asking if BTC will flash crash?
At 12:01 PM Beijing time on April 9, the U.S. tariff policy towards all countries officially came into effect. Although there is panic about the 104% tariff on Dongda, which has already dropped from a low of 79,000 to 74,600, another significant drop is actually not that large.
The support below 74,600 is 72,000-73,000, which is the high point from early last year; the high point from 93-98 last year is still relatively stable, as seen in the URPD chart. Currently, more selling is around 83,000, indicating that short-term chips around 83,000 have been sold off.
From a daily chart perspective, the K-line is undergoing a second retest and has not yet refreshed the previous low. A slight rebound has appeared. If it can hold above 74,500 in the short term, the daily chart will form a double bottom pattern, and it is expected to continue challenging the 80,000 mark.
Continuing to influence emotions is the announcement of tariffs tonight at 4.9 in U.S. time. Will it be lower than 4.3 or aggressive?
If this remains aggressive, perhaps the U.S. stock market and $BTC will further dip. The market currently still expects a moderation. It has already fallen for four consecutive months; it should bounce back. In April and May, the bottom oscillation will kill the bulls, and after killing the bulls, the rise will start. Interest rates will be cut in the second half of the year, and everything will rebound. Bitcoin will return to $100,000, ETH will return to $2,000, and SOL to $180.
Let's talk about the possibility of good news:
The U.S. has decided to readjust the tariff policy rate towards Country C, and then Country C has also agreed to readjust tariffs towards the U.S. The U.S. has given Country C a way out, and then Country C gives a way out in return. Both sides collectively adjust and lower tariffs. On April 9th and 10th, any news from either side will be a significant benefit, essentially indicating a bottom.
Now we need to act to short the bears and kill the bulls. Only when a large number of people are fooled and sell their spots will the market pull up. Hold onto your spots; with interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, Bitcoin will definitely return to $100,000. There will be significant gains in the second half of the year. Everyone, don’t open contracts or use leverage; just accumulate spots at this position. The top should appear in September or October.
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