I. Market resilience: The pullback magnitude is still within the continuation range of the bull market
Bitcoin has only fallen 28% from its historical high this round, far from reaching the bear market threshold. Comparing historical data:
2021 cycle: Three instances of over 30% pullback (February -53%, May -55%, September -37%) followed by new highs
Current cycle: Institutional holdings account for over 35% (12% in 2021), with an average daily net inflow of $120 million for ETFs building a bottom
On-chain signal: $76,000 corresponds to the miner shut-down price and the average holding cost of Grayscale GBTC, forming a strong support zone
II. Policy game: The 'extreme pressure' script behind the tariff war
Fake news Rashomon
On April 8, CNBC released the news of 'tariff postponement by 90 days', triggering a huge market shock:
The S&P 500 index surged $2.5 trillion in 20 minutes (equivalent to 1.5 times the total market value of Bitcoin)
Bitcoin instantly broke through $80,000, altcoins surged by over 20%
After the White House debunked rumors, the gains were given back, but the Nasdaq ultimately closed up 0.1%, exposing market fragility
**Trump's 'Art of the Deal'**
Negotiation chips: Demanding the EU purchase $350 billion in energy in exchange for tariff reductions, Vietnam needs to eliminate a $120 billion surplus
China's dilemma: 34% counter-tariffs faced with 50% retaliatory escalation, substantial 'hard decoupling' in China-US trade
Internal rift: Musk publicly opposes policies, Wall Street initiates legal proceedings, Goldman Sachs warns of another 20% drop in US stocks
III. Institutional covert battle: ETF fund flows and MicroStrategy's life-and-death game
ETF long-short game
Single-day net outflow of $97 million sets a new high since March, but BlackRock increases its holdings by 18,000 units against the trend
Grayscale GBTC discount rate widens to -1.5%, arbitrage funds accelerate exit
MicroStrategy's sword of Damocles
Holding cost: Cumulative floating loss of $4.6 billion (average price $83,000)
Potential risk: If forced to liquidate 275,000 Bitcoins, it may trigger a chain sell-off
Market indicator: MicroStrategy's stock price and Bitcoin price correlation reaches 0.91, becoming a market sentiment amplifier
IV. Altcoin breakout: Exchange reshuffling and Meme coins' counter-cyclical carnival
Binance's major cleanup
17 tokens delisted in a single day (including BTG, MDX, etc.), elimination rate reaches a new high since 2023
New token listing standards shift: TVL > $5 million, holding addresses > 50,000, monthly active developers > 20
Meme coin's anti-dip logic
Musk effect: $RFC's market value exceeds $40 million (7-day +270%)
Cultural meme: $FARTCOIN breaks out through 'fart culture', with daily buying volume from the Korean community accounting for 65%
On-chain games: $REMUS locks 90% of circulating supply through 'Werewolf Killing staking' mechanism
V. Cycle deduction: Three major observation indicators of bull-bear boundary
Liquidity gate
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in May rises to 68% (CME data)
If realized, it will release $450 billion of institutional funds into the market
On-chain liquidation threshold
Bitcoin falling below $72,000 will trigger $15 billion in leveraged position liquidations
Ethereum at $1,400 corresponds to a 60% staking position break-even point
Geopolitical black swan
The probability of US and Chinese warships confronting each other rises to 25% (Morgan Stanley geopolitical risk index)
The Taiwan Strait conflict will directly impact the Asian crypto OTC market
Strategy suggestions:
Spot holders stick to the $76,000-$78,000 replenishment range
Contract players pay attention to long-short killing opportunities when the VIX index breaks 40
Long-term layout of strong fundamental tokens like SOL and MKR to avoid projects on the exchange delisting list
Conclusion
When CNBC can create 'official fake news', when Musk and the White House openly tear each other apart, and when MicroStrategy's holdings become a market ticking time bomb—these absurd scenarios are typical characteristics of the late bull market. Historical cycles tell us: the true bear market always arrives quietly, not born in moments of universal panic. Hold your chips and await the 'surprise' of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in May.#关于后市判断
