关于后市判断
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Bull Market Unfinished: Survival Rules of the Crypto Market under Policy Game
I. Market resilience: The pullback magnitude is still within the continuation range of the bull market
Bitcoin has only fallen 28% from its historical high this round, far from reaching the bear market threshold. Comparing historical data:
2021 cycle: Three instances of over 30% pullback (February -53%, May -55%, September -37%) followed by new highs
Current cycle: Institutional holdings account for over 35% (12% in 2021), with an average daily net inflow of $120 million for ETFs building a bottom
On-chain signal: $76,000 corresponds to the miner shut-down price and the average holding cost of Grayscale GBTC, forming a strong support zone
II. Policy game: The 'extreme pressure' script behind the tariff war
Bitcoin has only fallen 28% from its historical high this round, far from reaching the bear market threshold. Comparing historical data:
2021 cycle: Three instances of over 30% pullback (February -53%, May -55%, September -37%) followed by new highs
Current cycle: Institutional holdings account for over 35% (12% in 2021), with an average daily net inflow of $120 million for ETFs building a bottom
On-chain signal: $76,000 corresponds to the miner shut-down price and the average holding cost of Grayscale GBTC, forming a strong support zone
II. Policy game: The 'extreme pressure' script behind the tariff war
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#昨日操作总结复盘
I. Ether
1. The first order for Ether was placed at 3036, with a stop loss set at 3028, which was too early. During unstable times, if there are no other pending orders, a stop loss should not be set too early.
2. After the second order at 3043, a take profit was set at 3104, which is not a big issue, but the timing was a bit rushed.
3. Confirm that Bitcoin will guide a second pullback. For the Ether and Sol that have already taken profits, they should be placed back at the original price with a stop loss set, rather than being overly cautious and placing them at a lower price. Greed can lead to losses from small gains.
II. Sol
The second take profit for Sol was at 227. The third time should be bought back, and even the fourth time during the second bottoming at night can use the profit from the previous order to place a lower multiple at the original price and set a stop loss with the profit.
III. BTC
As a benchmark, BTC's price is more noticeable. When setting pending orders, one should not pursue precision too much. Yesterday, the pending order was at 97672, with a minimum of 97680. How many times has this happened? Being too stingy with pending orders risks missing out when prices rise. The mindset needs to be broadened.
#关于后市判断
First of all, today should continue to pull back, but if it doesn't go down, it is very likely to continue rising before pulling back.
If there is no dramatic rise or fall before the monthly close, and if it rises directly after the monthly close, then the whole of February may see a V shape.
If it falls after the monthly close, and even breaks yesterday's low point, then it could be a mindless entry.
The cautious points from yesterday's second exploration can serve as a reference:
BTC 96250
Sol 214
Eth 2947
Bnb 627
$BTC $ETH $SOL
I. Ether
1. The first order for Ether was placed at 3036, with a stop loss set at 3028, which was too early. During unstable times, if there are no other pending orders, a stop loss should not be set too early.
2. After the second order at 3043, a take profit was set at 3104, which is not a big issue, but the timing was a bit rushed.
3. Confirm that Bitcoin will guide a second pullback. For the Ether and Sol that have already taken profits, they should be placed back at the original price with a stop loss set, rather than being overly cautious and placing them at a lower price. Greed can lead to losses from small gains.
II. Sol
The second take profit for Sol was at 227. The third time should be bought back, and even the fourth time during the second bottoming at night can use the profit from the previous order to place a lower multiple at the original price and set a stop loss with the profit.
III. BTC
As a benchmark, BTC's price is more noticeable. When setting pending orders, one should not pursue precision too much. Yesterday, the pending order was at 97672, with a minimum of 97680. How many times has this happened? Being too stingy with pending orders risks missing out when prices rise. The mindset needs to be broadened.
#关于后市判断
First of all, today should continue to pull back, but if it doesn't go down, it is very likely to continue rising before pulling back.
If there is no dramatic rise or fall before the monthly close, and if it rises directly after the monthly close, then the whole of February may see a V shape.
If it falls after the monthly close, and even breaks yesterday's low point, then it could be a mindless entry.
The cautious points from yesterday's second exploration can serve as a reference:
BTC 96250
Sol 214
Eth 2947
Bnb 627
$BTC $ETH $SOL
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