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This week in review
From March 31 to April 7 this week, Ice Sugar Orange peaked near $88500 and fell close to $74508, with a fluctuation range of about 15.8%.
Observing the chip distribution chart, there is a large amount of trading around 78567, which will provide certain support or pressure.
Analysis:
60000-68000 approximately 1.55 million coins;
90000-100000 approximately 2.04 million coins;
In the short term, there is a 70% probability of not breaking 70000~75000;
Among them, there is a 60% probability of not breaking 80000~85000 in the short term.
Important news aspects
Economic news aspects
U.S. stock index futures have cumulatively fallen more than 15% over three days.
Last week, the Nasdaq index fell over 10%, the S&P 500 fell over 9%, and the Dow Jones index fell over 7%.
The Kobeissi Letter data shows that U.S. stocks lost $11.1 trillion over 44 trading days, about 38% of U.S. GDP.
The S&P 500 recently saw a market value evaporation of about $5.4 trillion over two days.
Due to rumors of Trump considering suspending tariffs (later debunked), U.S. stock indices (especially the Nasdaq) experienced significant intraday volatility (a range of 9.68%), then fell back after the White House refuted the rumors (the Nasdaq closed up 0.1%, the S&P down 0.23%, the Dow down 0.91%).
Federal Reserve policy expectations and actions:
Rate cut expectations rise/advance: Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's 'emergency rate cuts' are climbing.
Swap trading shows a probability of about 40% for a 25 basis point cut next week (relative to the reporting time), much earlier than the originally scheduled May 7th meeting. The interest rate futures market fully prices in five rate cuts in 2025, with a 54.6% probability of a 25 basis point cut in May.
Institutional forecast:
Goldman Sachs predicts that if the U.S. avoids recession, the Federal Reserve will cut rates three times by 25 basis points starting in June; if a recession occurs, cuts of about 200 basis points are expected next year. Total cuts of 130 basis points are expected by 2025 (higher than the previous expectation of 105 basis points).
TD Securities joins Goldman Sachs and UBS in predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut rates at every meeting after June until May 2026.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast for U.S. GDP growth in Q4 2025 to 0.5%, and raised the probability of recession over the next 12 months from 35% to 45%.
Trump's pressure: On April 7, Trump stated that there is no inflation in the U.S. and reiterated that the Federal Reserve should cut rates.
The Federal Reserve held a closed-door meeting on April 7, with results pending publication. The meeting minutes will be released this Thursday (relative to the time of the report).
Trade and tariff issues:
Impact of Trump's tariffs: The tariff measures insisted upon by Trump are considered one of the important reasons for market turmoil.
Bloomberg reports that Wall Street executives are pressuring the U.S. Treasury Secretary to persuade Trump to change his tariff stance.
Pay attention to the possible tariff effective date on April 9; Trump's economic advisor stated that an agreement cannot be confirmed before this date.
EU countermeasures: The European Commission proposed to impose a 25% counter-tariff on U.S. goods, effective May 16. Von der Leyen called this a significant turning point for the U.S., but the EU is still prepared to negotiate.
Global market linkage:
On Monday during the day, the Nikkei index (fell over 8% within the first 10 minutes) and the Korean Composite Index (fell over 5%) triggered a circuit breaker.
Major European stock indices (Stoxx 50, FTSE 100) also fell sharply (over 4% decline).
Gold prices fell 1.67% to $2984 per ounce (Note: Gold usually rises in risk-averse scenarios; this information may need verification or has a special background).
News in the crypto ecosystem
The total market value of cryptocurrencies was reported at $2.51 trillion on April 7, with a 24-hour decline of 10.7%. Since January 20 (related to Trump), the market capitalization has evaporated by $1.111 trillion.
The crypto fear and greed index dropped to 23 (extreme fear) on April 7, below last week's average of 34.
BTC once fell to $74,500, and ETH dropped to $1411.
The Block reported that Monday's crypto market sell-off was primarily driven by global macro factors, rather than issues within the crypto market itself. Oversold conditions may trigger a rebound in the middle of the week (depending on macro data).
Analyst Eugene Ng Ah Sio believes the decline is a turmoil for the entire U.S. stock market (along with the crypto market), survival is key, and there may be opportunities after the storm.
Standard Chartered analysis: U.S. 'isolationism' and tariff risks may enhance BTC's safe-haven value (relative to increasing dollar risks); if traditional markets do not provide broader hedging, BTC may rebound to around $84,000.
Last week, the U.S. spot BTC ETF saw a cumulative net outflow of $165 million.
BlackRock's BUIDL fund (tokenized fund) has reached $1.94983 billion, with a single-week increase of $14 million and a near 30-day increase of 191.71%.
'Whale/Institution 7 Siblings' increased their holdings by 25,102 ETH at an average price of $1700, with the address holding over 660,000 ETH in total.
The U.S. SEC will hold a second roundtable on 'customized regulations for cryptocurrency trading' on April 11 at Eastern Time.
HKEX executives stated at the Web3 Carnival that they will issue a circular allowing licensed virtual asset platforms to provide staking services (including for spot ETFs) and will implement additional safeguards (such as mandatory custody and setting staking ratio limits) to manage risks.
Long-term insights: for observing our long-term situation; bull market/bear market/structural change/neutral state
Medium-term exploration: to analyze what stage we are currently in, how long this stage will last, and what situations we will face.
Short-term observation: to analyze the short-term market situation; as well as the possibility of certain directions and events occurring under certain premises.
Long-term insights
Net position of exchange whales inflows and outflows
Flow of funds into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs
High-weight selling pressure for Bitcoin
Non-liquid whales
(Below is the net position of exchange whales inflows and outflows)
Although the overall market is selling off due to macro panic and possible ETF outflows, the largest players (whales) seem to be using this drop to withdraw tokens from exchanges. This may imply:
Increased holdings/accumulation: They see low prices as buying opportunities and transfer coins to cold wallets for storage.
Long-term holding willingness: Protecting assets during high volatility indicates that there is still confidence in holding coins even in a sluggish market.
This strongly indicates that these large entities are not the main drivers of current selling pressure on exchanges.
Their actions may even provide potential bottom support or indicate that 'smart money' is accumulating chips.
(Below is the flow of funds into U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs)
Although there has indeed been a significant net outflow (negative column) during the recent price decline, a very large single-day net inflow (huge positive column) appeared at the far right of the chart (latest data point).
This is an extremely important signal.
It indicates that recently, a large amount of funds have flowed into the Bitcoin market through ETF channels.
This completely reverses the short-term judgment of 'ETF demand exhaustion' based solely on previous outflow data. It may indicate:
Some (or some) large institutions/investors believe that recent prices are attractive and decisively enter the market.
This large inflow may indicate a shift in market sentiment from extreme pessimism to stabilization, or at least a sign that selling pressure has temporarily exhausted.
The scale of this inflow may be enough to offset or even exceed the outflows of the previous days, significantly improving the short-term supply-demand balance from the ETF channel.
Of course, single-day data may be coincidental, and we need to observe whether the subsequent days' ETF flows can continue to be positive or stable to confirm a trend change.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure for Bitcoin)
The main selling pressure from long-term holders may indeed have passed.
The supply from short-term speculators at high levels still poses potential risks (they are prone to panic), but the recent large ETF inflow may provide a boost to the market, temporarily stabilizing prices and alleviating some selling pressure from short-term speculators, even giving them hope.
If prices rebound due to ETF inflows, the loss state of short-term speculators may improve.
(Below is the non-liquid whale group)
The recent large inflow is a strong medium-term signal, possibly marking an important support level confirmed by strong buying during the pullback phase, but this does not immediately change the fact that the long-term accumulation trend has already slowed.
It resembles a strong buying signal that appears during an adjustment cycle.
The current market situation is more complicated and slightly positive than previously judged.
Although macro risks still exist, long-term holders have distributed at high levels, accumulation momentum has weakened, and many short-term holders are on the brink of losses, two key signals of 'smart money' or 'institutional power' have appeared simultaneously and point in the same direction (optimistic about the current price area):
Whales continue to withdraw coins from exchanges, showing confidence in long-term holding or off-market accumulation.
Recent data shows large amounts of funds flowing into the market through ETFs, indicating strong buying power has entered at recent lows.
These two signals together weaken the short-term pessimistic expectations brought about only by previous ETF outflows and high short-term speculative chips.
The market may be experiencing a phase of fierce competition between long and short forces, where long-term optimists/institutions are using pullbacks to accumulate positions against the pressure brought by macro panic and some short-term holders' selling.
Future outlook
Short term:
Volatility remains high, but a short-term bottom may have been found or is forming. The recent large ETF inflow is a strong support signal.
The key is to observe whether the ETF flows can continue to be positive or remain neutral in the coming days. If inflows continue, prices are likely to stabilize or even rebound, which will greatly alleviate the pressure on short-term speculators. If subsequent flows turn back to large outflows, it indicates that this inflow may be an isolated event, and the market still has downward risks.
Medium term:
The likelihood of consolidation and bottoming has increased.
If ETF inflows can continue for a period (even if not large inflows every day, but overall no longer continuous large outflows), combined with the accumulation by whales off-market, a relatively solid bottom may form near the current price level.
The market still needs time to digest the short-term speculative chips at high levels and wait for further clarity in the macro environment.
The fundamental view remains unchanged; the long-term value logic still stands.
However, this large ETF inflow (if proven to be a return of institutional behavior) may indicate that institutional interest in Bitcoin has not disappeared due to short-term volatility; they may still be looking for strategic entry points.
This is positive for the broader acceptance of Bitcoin and long-term value discovery.
Medium-term exploration
Short-term, long-term participant supply volume
Network sentiment positivity
Liquidity supply volume
Loss transfer net position
Derivatives liquidation structure
(Below is the supply volume of short-term and long-term participants)
The supply of short-term participants is still declining, while the supply of long-term participants is increasing.
It is possible that the current structure is in a low liquidity environment with reduced short-term supply, which weakens the strength of maintaining secondary pricing.
Conversely, the rise of long-term funds may indicate a return to accumulation, compressing the cyclical deflation structure of residual supply available for sale in the market.
Similarly, in the phase where the market is gradually finding a bottom on the left side, the accumulation of long-term chips is conducive to a better explosion in the next round of market conditions.
(Below is the positive sentiment on the network)
Network sentiment has recently been quite low, which may indicate that the overall circulating supply situation in the market is poor.
Combining the phenomenon of declining supply from short-term participants, the speculative funds currently in the market are showing weak momentum.
(Below is the liquidity supply volume)
Liquidity supply remains in a low state; the structural repair of the market may still require waiting.
(Below is the net position of loss transfer volume)
If the selling pressure from loss-making chips can gradually weaken, the market may show signs of gradually contracting left-side pricing. Currently, it has not decreased but has reached the maximum selling limit at this stage.
Provided that there is no continuity of loss selling, the selling pressure of the current stage may have reached the limit area.
(Below is the derivatives liquidation structure)
The derivatives liquidation structure has shifted from long liquidation to short liquidation structure, which may intensify short-selling risks over time.
Short-term observation
Derivatives risk coefficient
Options intent transaction ratio
Derivatives trading volume
Options implied volatility
Profit and loss transfer volume
New addresses and active addresses
Ice Sugar Orange exchange net position
Auntie exchange net position
High-weight selling pressure
Global purchasing power status
Stablecoin exchange net position
Off-chain exchange data
Derivatives rating: Risk coefficient is in the green zone, derivatives risk is reduced.
(Below is the derivatives risk coefficient)
The market quickly corrected due to news, and the current risk coefficient has reached the green zone. From the indicators alone, the risk of rapid liquidation of bulls has decreased, but this week's market is expected to be significantly affected by news.
(Below is the options intent transaction ratio)
The proportion and trading volume of put options have rapidly increased, with the current proportion of put options at a high level.
(Below is the derivatives trading volume)
Derivatives trading volume has climbed to the median.
(Below is the implied volatility of options)
Options implied volatility has quick fluctuations in the short term.
Sentiment state rating: Neutral
(Below is the profit and loss transfer volume)
The following is only for BTC. With the rapid pullback, there has not been a real 'emotional peak' panic sell-off in the market, only a small number of chips choosing to close losses.
Observe the orange line (panic selling), if it touches the peak stage again, it is a relatively good bottom trading range in the short term.
(Below is the number of new addresses and active addresses)
New active addresses are at a lower-middle level.
Spot and selling pressure structure rating: Both BTC and ETH have seen slight inflows.
(Below is the net position of the Ice Sugar Orange exchange)
Currently, BTC has slight inflows.
(Below is the net position of the E-exchange)
Currently, ETH has slight inflows.
(Below is the high-weight selling pressure)
Current pullbacks have slight high-weight selling pressure participation.
Purchasing power rating: Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased.
(Below is the global purchasing power status)
Current purchasing power is in a state of loss.
(Below is the net position of USDT exchanges)
Stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased.
On-chain trading data rating: There is a willingness to buy at 70000; there is a willingness to sell at 88000.
(Below is the off-chain data from Coinbase)
There is a willingness to buy near the price of 65000~75000;
There is a willingness to sell near the price of 88000.
(Below is the off-chain data from Binance)
There is a willingness to buy near the price of 70000~75000;
There is a willingness to sell near the price of 88000.
(Below is the off-chain data from Bitfinex)
There is a willingness to buy near the price of 65000,75000;
There is a willingness to sell near the price of 88000.
This week in summary:
Summary of news:
The current financial market is experiencing a confidence crisis driven by drastic changes in the macro economy (especially the uncertainty of U.S. tariff policy) and expectations of monetary policy (betting on a significant early rate cut by the Federal Reserve). This has led to a broad sell-off of risk assets, including U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies, with market sentiment extremely fearful.
The crypto market has shown high correlation with traditional risk assets during this storm, with short-term capital outflows (such as BTC ETF) exacerbating downward pressure. However, some long-term positive signals also exist in the market, such as institutions continuously building positions (BUIDL growth), some large holders buying on dips, and the gradual construction of a regulatory environment (new regulations in Hong Kong).
In the near future, the market direction will heavily depend on the upcoming key economic data, the Federal Reserve's communication, and the final implementation of tariff policies, with volatility expected to remain high.
Data-driven rebounds or deep falls: If the CPI/PPI data is significantly below expectations, it may reinforce rate cut expectations, combined with oversold sentiment, potentially triggering a brief rebound in risk assets (including cryptocurrencies).
In the medium term, the actual policy path of the Federal Reserve and the market's expectations, as well as whether the U.S. economy falls into recession, will be the dominant factors.
Federal Reserve's actual path vs market expectations: The core point is whether and how the Federal Reserve will fulfill the market's aggressive rate cut expectations.
If economic data does not deteriorate rapidly, the Federal Reserve may not cut rates as quickly or significantly as the market expects, which could lead to a market repricing.
Whether the U.S. economy will substantially slide into recession will be key in influencing asset allocation and Federal Reserve policy.
In the long term, the evolution of the macroeconomic landscape and the clarification of the intrinsic value positioning of crypto assets will determine their development trajectory.
Whether cryptocurrencies like BTC can establish their unique value positioning (as purely risk assets, or with some hedging/value storage function) across different macro cycles (like high inflation, recession, geopolitical risks) will be verified through longer-term performance.
The short-term direction of the market heavily depends on the upcoming events; continue to pay attention:
The release of key U.S. economic data (CPI, PPI).
Release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes (confirming or revising market expectations).
The final decision on Trump's tariff policy (April 9 is a key observation point).
On-chain long-term insights:
Whales have been continuously withdrawing coins from exchanges recently, showing confidence in accumulation or long-term holding during the market decline.
The spot ETF witnessed a massive single-day net inflow after experiencing outflows, indicating strong buying power has entered at the current price level.
High-weight holders have taken profits at high levels (VDD), but many short-term holders (STH) remain vulnerable to potential sales.
The long-term whale group shows that market accumulation momentum has weakened and that the peak of this round of upward momentum has passed.
Market tone:
The market is currently in a pullback phase under macro pressure after reaching a peak.
Despite risks such as the weakness of short-term holders, positive signals have emerged: whales are accumulating off-market, and key spot ETFs have seen massive single-day inflows.
The convergence of these signals indicates that there is significant buying interest in the current price area, which may be forming a short-term bottom or strong support zone, but the short-term outlook heavily depends on the sustainability of this new ETF demand.
On-chain medium-term exploration:
The reduction in short-term supply coexists with long-term capital accumulation, indicating that the market is entering a low liquidity environment, signaling a future energy accumulation stage.
Market sentiment is bleak, combined with a contraction in short-term supply, reflecting a significant decrease in speculative fund activity.
Liquidity continues to be scarce, and the structural repair of the market still requires time to brew.
The current selling pressure from losses is nearing its peak; if it does not trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, there may be signs of contraction in left-side pricing.
The derivatives liquidation structure has shifted from long to short, with short risk exposure gradually accumulating over time.
Market tone:
The current market is in a stage of low liquidity stock game, and structural repair still requires time.
Long-term funds are settling, short positions in derivatives are accumulating risk, gradually entering the left-side convergence structural deflation rhythm.
On-chain short-term observation:
Risk coefficient is in the green zone, derivatives risk is reduced.
New active addresses are at a lower-middle level.
Market sentiment state rating: Neutral.
The overall net position of exchanges shows slight inflows for both BTC and ETH.
Global purchasing power is in a state of loss, stablecoin purchasing power has slightly decreased.
Off-chain trading data shows a willingness to buy at 70000; a willingness to sell at 88000.
In the short term, there is a 70% probability of not breaking 70000~75000; among them, there is a 60% probability of not breaking 80000~85000 in the short term.
Market tone:
For BTC, the market's panic selling has not really fermented, with only a small number of chips choosing to close losses. This week, the market is still expected to be significantly influenced by news, and short-term patience is needed to wait for the news to ferment or for a true emotional peak before trading.
Risk warning:
All of the above are market discussions and explorations, and do not constitute directional opinions on investments; please treat with caution and prevent market black swan risks.
This report is provided by the 'WTR' Research Institute.
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