"The spokesperson of China's Ministry of Commerce stated that the U.S. threatens to impose an additional 50% tariff on China, to which China firmly opposes. If the U.S. escalates tariff measures, China will resolutely take countermeasures to protect its own rights and interests."
1. Short-term market volatility and risk aversion sentiment
The threat of U.S. tariffs directly triggers a rise in global market risk aversion sentiment. Referring to historical cases (e.g., Bitcoin fell 8% within a week after Trump's tariffs were imposed in February 2025), the crypto market may face selling pressure, especially high-leverage altcoins may see significant declines. If China takes countermeasures (e.g., imposing a 34% tariff on U.S. goods), supply chain disruptions and escalating trade frictions will intensify market panic, and capital may temporarily flow into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and government bonds, leading to liquidity tightening in the crypto market.
2. Mining machine supply chain and computing power impact
Tariff policies directly impact the mining machine industry chain. U.S. crypto mining machines mainly rely on imports from China and Southeast Asia. If tariffs are imposed (e.g., a 50% tariff on Chinese mining machine exports), the cost for U.S. miners will soar, and some mining farms may be forced to shut down, threatening the stability of the Bitcoin network's computing power. Data from 2025 shows that the U.S. accounts for about 40% of global computing power. If cost pressures lead miners to sell off Bitcoin, it could accelerate price declines.
3. Market differentiation under policy games
The U.S.-China tariff game intensifies policy uncertainty, and the crypto market may present a polarization.
Bitcoin's risk-averse properties: If inflation rises due to tariffs (e.g., U.S. CPI exceeds 4%), the narrative of Bitcoin as 'digital gold' may strengthen, attracting institutional hedging capital inflow.
Altcoins under pressure: Altcoins that rely on market liquidity (e.g., SOL, MEME sector) may experience larger declines due to leverage liquidation and capital withdrawal, especially those tokens that are strongly correlated with U.S. tech stocks are at higher risk.
4. Long-term structural changes
Mining migration and cost restructuring: Mining companies may accelerate the transfer of capacity to tariff-exempt regions (e.g., Mexico, Middle East), but in the short term, power costs and infrastructure limitations will constrain efficiency.
Regulatory risk escalation: U.S.-China friction may spill over into the crypto regulatory field. If the U.S. restricts Chinese mining companies or exchanges under the guise of 'national security', it will impact the industry landscape.
5. Potential rebound window
If the tariff policy is implemented and market panic is released, technical support levels (e.g., Bitcoin at $80,000) may trigger bottom-fishing capital to enter the market. Institutions like Standard Chartered believe that Bitcoin, as a 'de-dollarization' hedging tool, may rebound to over $88,000 once the policy is clarified.
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Summary: The escalation of tariffs is a short-term negative for the crypto market, but Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties and capital rotation under policy games may create structural opportunities. Investors need to closely monitor the rhythm of U.S.-China policy implementation, guard against leverage risks, and pay attention to changes in mining costs and computing power migration trends.
