Recently, I have been observing the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on the cryptocurrency market, but this time the Trump administration's comprehensive escalation really caught the market off guard. On April 3rd, Bitcoin plummeted directly from around $100,000 to $82,000, a drop of more than 10%, taking the entire altcoin market down with it. This is because trade wars are not just a short-term shock; they may reshape the long-term landscape of global supply chains and capital flows.

In the short term, the market's first reaction is to seek safety. Although Bitcoin is seen by many as 'digital gold', during times of panic, it is often sold off alongside risk assets like U.S. stocks. This time was no exception, with Nasdaq futures crashing 5%, and Bitcoin followed suit. After all, its underlying logic is decentralization and anti-inflation, while trade wars may exacerbate global inflationary pressures. If the Federal Reserve is forced to raise interest rates again, traditional assets may suffer more, while Bitcoin may regain investor favor due to its scarcity.

In the long term, the impact of trade wars on cryptocurrencies may be more profound than we imagine. On one hand, tariffs raise the cost of mining machines, especially for mining farms that rely on imported hardware; computing power may further concentrate in the hands of large miners with resource advantages. On the other hand, if Trump really pushes for a 'national Bitcoin reserve' plan, or if more countries start incorporating Bitcoin into their fiscal reserves, it could fundamentally change the market's perception of cryptocurrencies. However, all of this depends on the subsequent developments of the trade war—if major global economies retaliate with increased tariffs, leading to economic stagflation, then cryptocurrencies may experience a true 'safe-haven demand'; but if the situation eases, the market may return to its original trajectory.

My advice is: don't be scared by short-term fluctuations, but also don't blindly buy the dip. If Bitcoin stabilizes around $82,000, it could be a good entry point, but you must build your position in batches, as the uncertainty of the trade war is still brewing. As for altcoins, I only dare to look at ETH and BNB, which have actual ecosystems; the risks of smaller cryptocurrencies are too high. Finally, make sure to keep some cash on hand, because if the trade war escalates and leads to further market collapse, that will be the real opportunity. #美国加征关税