U.S. stock index futures have fallen over 15% cumulatively for three consecutive days. Last week, the Nasdaq index dropped over 10%. According to The Kobeissi Letter data, the U.S. stock market lost $11.1 trillion in 44 trading days, roughly equivalent to 38% of the U.S. GDP. Goldman Sachs has lowered its U.S. GDP growth forecast for the fourth quarter of 2025 to 0.5%, raising the probability of a recession over the next 12 months from 35% to 45%. TD Securities has joined Goldman Sachs and UBS Global Wealth Management in anticipating an earlier easing of U.S. policy, expecting the committee to cut rates at each meeting after June until May 2026.
Returning to the main topic:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a second roundtable on cryptocurrency regulation on April 11 at 10 AM Eastern Time, with the theme 'Tailored Regulation for Cryptocurrency Trading.' The Federal Reserve's official website disclosed that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System held a closed-door meeting on the morning of April 7 local time, and a final announcement regarding the discussed matters will be published on the Board's website after the meeting. On April 7, the Executive Director of the Investment Products Division of the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission, Choi Fung-yee, stated at the Hong Kong Web 3 Carnival that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will issue a circular allowing licensed virtual asset trading platforms to provide staking services, including staking for virtual asset spot ETFs. However, due to the associated risks, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will implement additional safeguards, including requiring licensed platforms to custody the staked virtual assets and setting a cap on the ratio of virtual asset spot ETFs that can be staked to manage liquidity risk. On April 7, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 23, with a weekly average of 34, indicating extreme fear in the market. The whale/institution 7 Siblings increased their holdings by 25,102 ETH at an average price of $1,700, with this address holding over 660,000 ETH.
The BlackRock BUIDL Fund has reached a size of $1.94983 billion, increasing by $14 million in a single week and 191.71% over the past 30 days. Analyst Eugene Ng Ah Sio remarked that this downturn is unprecedented not just in the cryptocurrency market but in the entire U.S. stock market, and once this storm passes, it may create wealth capable of changing fortunes, but surviving is key at the moment.
On April 7, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was reported at $2.51 trillion, with a 24-hour decline of 10.7%. On the day Trump took office (January 20), the total market capitalization was $3.621 trillion, meaning the cryptocurrency market has evaporated $1.111 trillion since then. The Block reported that the sell-off in the crypto market on Monday was mainly driven by global macro factors, not problems within the crypto market itself. An oversold condition may trigger a rebound mid-week, depending on upcoming economic data. With the Fed's meeting minutes set to be released on Wednesday, followed by U.S. CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday, the market rebound could begin as early as Wednesday. Standard Chartered Bank stated that as signs of 'U.S. isolationism' begin to affect market sentiment, BTC may benefit from rising tariff risks. Its Global Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoffrey Kendrick, noted that U.S. isolationism resembles increased risks associated with holding the dollar, which will ultimately benefit BTC. The recent market sell-off causing cryptocurrency prices to drop may fade unless broader safe-haven measures emerge in the traditional market; otherwise, BTC may rebound to around $84,000. Last week, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw a total outflow of $165 million, while ETH spot ETFs had an outflow of $50 million. The total market capitalization of stablecoins across the network reached $235.101 billion, growing 0.71% over the past seven days.
Trump's unilateral tariff measures have caused U.S. stock futures to fall over 15% cumulatively for three consecutive days. Last week, the Nasdaq index dropped over 10%, the S&P 500 index fell over 9%, and the Dow Jones index declined over 7%. According to The Kobeissi Letter data, the U.S. stock market lost $11.1 trillion in 44 trading days, roughly equivalent to 38% of the U.S. GDP. The world's 500 richest individuals experienced the largest two-day net worth loss in history, with a loss of $536 billion from April 3 to 4. Bloomberg reported that Wall Street executives have 'bombarded' U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen's phone, demanding she persuade Trump to change his stance on tariffs. The S&P recently saw a combined market value evaporate by approximately $5.4 trillion over two days. On Monday, Asian stock markets triggered 'circuit breaker mechanisms,' with the Nikkei index falling over 8% within the first 10 minutes of trading and the Korean Composite Stock Price Index dropping over 5%. The European Stoxx 50 index fell 4.55%, and the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped 4.38%. Gold fell 1.67% to $2,984 per ounce. U.S. stock futures opened sharply lower, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropping over 5%. BTC fell to $74,500, and ETH dropped to $1,411. In the evening, a brief rumor that 'Trump is considering suspending tariffs for 90 days' caused significant fluctuations in U.S. stock indices, with the Nasdaq fluctuating by 9.68%, rising 4.5% at one point, while the S&P 500 rose by 2.9% and the Dow Jones increased by 1.88%. The White House refuted the claim, stating that 'the idea of suspending tariffs for 90 days is fake news.' The Nasdaq closed up 0.1%, the S&P 500 fell 0.23%, and the Dow Jones declined by 0.91%.
The European Commission has proposed to impose a 25% counter-tariff on a range of U.S. imported goods, effective May 16. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated: 'This is a significant turning point for the U.S.; however, we are ready to negotiate with the U.S. at any time.' Trump's economic adviser Miran indicated that no confirmation can be made regarding any tariff agreement before the tariffs take effect on April 9, and that Trump will make the decision. Expectations for a 'emergency rate cut' by the Federal Reserve are rising, with swap trading indicating a roughly 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut next week, well ahead of the Fed's scheduled interest rate decision on May 7. Trump stated on April 7: 'There is no inflation,' reiterating that the Federal Reserve should cut rates.
Goldman Sachs stated that as part of a preventive easing cycle, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates three times by 25 basis points each, starting in June, under the basic scenario of avoiding a recession in the U.S. If the U.S. economy does fall into recession, the Federal Reserve will adopt a more aggressive policy response, cutting rates by about 200 basis points next year. Goldman Sachs expects a total rate cut of 125 basis points by 2025, adjusting the fourth-quarter GDP growth forecast down to 0.5% and raising the probability of a recession over the next 12 months from 35% to 45%.
TD Securities has joined Goldman Sachs and UBS Global Wealth Management in anticipating an earlier easing of U.S. policy, expecting the committee to cut rates at each meeting after June until May 2026. Apart from possible tariff measures on April 9, several data points this week will also influence market sentiment. On Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release its meeting minutes, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) previous value at 2.8% and expected value at 2.6%, while the core CPI's previous value was 3.1% with an expected value of 3.0%. Rate futures market traders currently fully price in five rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, with a 54.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in May and a 45.4% probability of maintaining the current rate. Before Trump's tariff measures, the market is difficult to assess; we just hope that this wave of turbulence passes, bringing calm to the market and ushering in multiple rate cuts by the Fed, needed to reverse the declines in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets. Attention should be paid to the Fed's meeting minutes on Thursday.