As Trump reinitiates high tariff policies, the global market has once again entered a period of uncertainty. Surprisingly, while traditional finance is facing severe shocks, the cryptocurrency market appears 'unfazed', even experiencing a slight increase. Does this indicate that a new bull market has quietly begun?
🧾 The market landscape at a glance
Trump proposed comprehensive high tariffs, even including some small island nations, in an attempt to stop trade routes that 'evade tariffs'
Traditional financial markets have been severely impacted, with years of accumulated gains evaporating in an instant
The cryptocurrency market is relatively stable, with some coins even recording gains
This scene seems to recreate the circumstances of the eve of the 2021 bull market.
📉 Interest rate cut expectations will become a key driving force
The Federal Reserve intends to cut interest rates to alleviate the refinancing pressure of government debt, which is no longer speculation. Trump himself posted a video on his social platform Truth, directly supporting low-interest rate policies.
Historical experience tells us:
When interest rates decline, liquidity is released, and the economy becomes active
The 'excess money' in residents' hands will seek channels for risk aversion and value appreciation
Cryptocurrency assets are the natural flow of this capital
The extremely low interest rates (below 1%) during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 were an important catalyst for the cryptocurrency market bull run.
🧨 What if the situation worsens?
Currently, several countries are taking countermeasures against U.S. tariff policies. If this trade war continues to escalate:
Traditional assets will continue to be under pressure
Investors will seek asset allocation paths independent of sovereign policies
Cryptocurrency assets as a 'decentralized safe haven' will become more attractive
🔗 The cryptocurrency market decouples from traditional finance
In recent years, cryptocurrency assets have been highly correlated with traditional assets. However, this time's market performance shows significant changes:
U.S. stocks plummeted, while the cryptocurrency market remained stable
The market is beginning to realize: cryptocurrency is not an appendage to traditional finance, but an independent financial system
This could be a turning point for cryptocurrency assets to embark on an independent valuation path.
✅ Conclusion:
The cryptocurrency bull market may quietly begin in the fall
In the short term, due to policy disruptions and global economic turmoil, the entire summer may still remain sluggish. But from a long-term perspective:
The three major factors of interest rate cut expectations, risk aversion demand, and institutional decoupling have gradually taken shape
The more unstable traditional finance becomes, the more opportunities the cryptocurrency market has to attract capital inflows
Therefore, we can reasonably expect: the real cryptocurrency bull market will begin to brew in the fall of 2024 and enter a new cycle peak.
