Trump has once again wielded the 'tariff big stick', a policy that has triggered violent turmoil in the global capital markets, with the crypto market suffering a heavy blow, falling into a 'Black Monday'-like crash.
Since Trump announced large-scale tariffs, the chain reaction in the financial markets has been continuously fermenting. From traditional stock markets to the crypto markets, risk assets have been subjected to widespread selling. CoinGecko data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total market capitalization of global cryptocurrencies has significantly dropped by 9.7%, shrinking to $2.53 trillion. The price of Bitcoin once fell below $77,000, and Ethereum also dropped below $1,600.
In the midst of the market's severe volatility, the long positions have suffered heavy losses. Coinglass data shows that the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached about $986 million, with long positions liquidated at $850 million and short positions liquidated at $136 million. The liquidation amount for Bitcoin alone reached $328 million, while Ethereum was about $293 million. From the funding rates of mainstream CEX and DEX, the current rates are generally below 0.005%, indicating that market participants are generally bearish, and short positions dominate.
The on-chain liquidation risks have also significantly increased. Onchain Lens has monitored that a certain whale is facing liquidation, having provided 292.77 WBTC (approximately $23.05 million) and 964.39 COMP (approximately $38,000) to borrow USDT and DAI, with a liquidation price of $76,284. According to PeckShield's monitoring, a certain whale was liquidated after borrowing $12.8 million USDT against 9,370 WETH as collateral when WETH fell below $1,700, with the liquidators seizing a total of 4,480 WETH, valued at about $7.26 million.
On-chain analyst Yu Jin monitoring has found that as the market declined, a certain whale address with a total of 67,500 ETH (approximately $105 million) in leveraged positions was completely liquidated when ETH fell to around $1,650. This whale address had added 2,160 ETH as collateral at 1 AM on April 7 to lower the liquidation line, but ultimately was still forcibly liquidated around 6 AM, repaying its $74.4 million DAI loan. Meanwhile, a whale using leverage to invest in AAVE also faces liquidation risks. If the AAVE price drops another $7 (to $123), its position of 102,000 AAVE (valued at $13.08 million) will be liquidated. This whale had a maximum unrealized profit of $21.33 million since buying until the end of last year, but now it has an unrealized loss of $3.58 million without having sold. Another whale holding 57,000 ETH has a current liquidation price of $1,564, nearly being liquidated at the same price as the previous 67,500 ETH position; it barely avoided liquidation by actively reducing its position in the past few days, and its position is still on the edge of the liquidation line, expected to continue reducing positions to lower risks.
As market panic escalates rapidly, several whales choose to cut losses. Lookonchain monitoring shows that a certain whale address panic-sold 14,014 ETH (approximately $22.14 million) in the past 3 hours; well-known trader Eugene stated that his BTC position, which he had bottomed out last Friday (after reducing his position), was automatically liquidated today due to falling below the stop-loss price; before today's market crash, a certain whale address deposited the remaining 778.5 BTC (approximately $64.33 million) into Binance to cut losses, incurring a loss of $2.53 million. A certain whale withdrew 202,604 SOL from staking two hours ago and deposited it into Binance, worth $24.3 million. This whale had withdrawn 201,755 SOL from Binance at a price of $124 on March 13 (valued at $25 million) and is currently facing a loss of about $678,000. OnchainLens has detected that a whale/institution deposited 1,000 BTC (worth $77.58 million) into Binance and deposited 354.34 BTC (worth $27.49 million) into a new wallet address, facing a loss of $9.04 million.
Due to the Trump administration's promotion of 'reciprocal tariffs' policy, global markets have been in turmoil, severely impacting investor confidence. The latest survey by Forbes shows that the support rate among Wall Street elites for Trump's economic policies has significantly declined, and market buying has nearly vanished. Although distrust of the current policy is spreading rapidly in the financial circle, Trump still insists that 'sometimes the market needs to take its medicine' and firmly believes that the tariff policy will bring 'very good things' to the U.S. in the long run.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, pointed out that the supporters of Trump are mostly groups without significant financial assets, which gives him more confidence in implementing strong tariff policies. Hayes reminded investors that if they want to predict when the Federal Reserve will restart easing, they should pay attention to the bond market volatility indicator, the MOVE index. When MOVE rises, traders financing the purchase of U.S. treasuries or corporate bonds will face higher margin requirements and be forced to liquidate positions. Once MOVE exceeds 140, the Federal Reserve may intervene in the market.
Goldman Sachs has also adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, stating that if a recession hits the U.S. economy, the risk of the Federal Reserve further easing policy is higher. The bank expects the Fed to start a series of rate cuts in June, earlier than the previously predicted July, as part of a preventive easing cycle. If the economy really falls into recession, the Fed will take a more aggressive policy response, cutting rates by about 200 basis points next year. Considering the increasing possibility of a recession, the agency's current weighted forecast shows that a total of 130 basis points will be cut by 2025, up from the previous 105 basis points.
As the 'reciprocal tariffs' will officially take effect on April 9, it is expected to further exacerbate global market volatility, and investors will face an increasingly severe game cycle. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju bluntly stated: 'The Bitcoin bull market cycle has ended. The realized market cap on-chain data shows that the market is showing typical bear market signals: although funds continue to flow into the market, prices have not shown corresponding increases.' He further explained that when small amounts of funds can push prices up, it indicates a bull market; when large amounts of funds cannot push prices up, it indicates a bear market. Although selling pressure may ease at any time, historical experience shows that true market reversals usually take at least six months, and the possibility of a rebound in the short term is low.
Andrew Kang, a partner at Mechanism Capital, also supports the bear market argument. He admitted that he hasn't closely followed cryptocurrencies for the past few months, but the possibility of ETH returning to the $1,000 - $1,500 range this year seems quite large. In the wake of a clear speculative frenzy past, it is absurd for an asset with negative growth/profits to have a market capitalization of $215 billion.
Investor Eugene stated that this decline is not only unprecedented in the crypto market but also in the entire stock market. He vaguely feels that as long as the response is appropriate, once this storm passes, it may create wealth that could change destinies. But for now, survival is the key.
