The upcoming week promises to be hot and filled with key events for Bitcoin and the financial market as a whole. Let’s break it down!
1️⃣ Closing the "gap" on BTC
We face an important price gap — from $84,350 to approximately $79,500 (may shift slightly depending on the daily candle). Usually, such gaps are attempted to be closed at the beginning of the week — on Monday or Tuesday. If it doesn’t work out, we will watch Thursday. High volatility is expected.
2️⃣ Inflation data and the Fed
Fresh inflation statistics will be released on Thursday.
The actual figure is 2.6%, against a forecast of 2.5% from TradingEconomics. On one hand, this is positive, but geopolitical factors and tariffs from Trump have caused confusion within the Fed, which has become more cautious in its expectations. This creates short-term pressure on Bitcoin.
⭐️ Personal forecast:
I expect the first interest rate cut in June, despite rising doubts within the Fed.
Inflation expectations for the end of 2025 have shifted from 2.5% to 2.7%, indicating a longer struggle for price stability.
⚡ Possible "shock" of the week:
I do not rule out that BTC may sharply "peek" into the zone:
$77,700 — $70,000. This could be either a final drop or a point for building positions.
Technical view on the weekly timeframe:
The scenario voiced on March 31 remains in force.
Despite local fluctuations, a base is forming for light growth/sideways movement in the next 1–2 weeks.
and also a more confident rebound in 2–3 weeks aiming for +15–25% growth for BTC in April.
Interesting statistics:
For October 2024 – March 2025:
Outflow of BTC from exchanges: ~340,000 BTC
Influx of stablecoins: ~$19–20 billion (USDT, USDC, DAI, etc.)
Only for March 2025:
BTC left exchanges: ~32,903 BTC
Influx of stablecoins: ~$10.1 billion
The last week of March:
BTC left: ~32,903 BTC
Influx of stables: ~$250 million
These are almost record levels!
A decrease in BTC on exchanges while simultaneously increasing the volume of stables is a positive signal in the medium- and long-term perspective.
But it is important to remember:
All data is preliminary and does not account for instantaneous outflows/inflows. The picture may change. The most important thing is that the trend remains bullish.
What to do?
Observe. React. Keep your finger on the pulse. And be ready for anything — especially against the backdrop of geopolitical decisions and economic reports.
Important zones to monitor:
I will update in the next post as soon as additional signals appear.
:✅Support: 77700, 77150, 76000, 74300, 72650, 71700, 71000, 70000, 69000
❌Resistance: 79770, 80900, 82300, 83200, 84100, 85100, 86100, 87600, 88400, 87600, 90000, 92100, 94800, 96000, 98550, 100000
Here’s the visualization: outflow of BTC from exchanges (in red) and influx of stablecoins (in blue, billion $) over the last 6 months. It can be seen how the volume of stablecoins sharply increased in March — this may signal preparation for purchases.
