I. Key Technical Signals
Support level validity
Current short-term support level for BTC is at $72,300 (CME gap fill). If effectively broken, it may trigger a second bottom test.
Daily level momentum indicates that the market is still in a repeated bottoming phase, and caution is needed as bears may accelerate breaking down due to negative policy.
Historical pattern reference
After a sharp drop in BTC in August 2024, a long lower shadow rebound occurred, but similar to the April 2021 trend, such patterns are often followed by choppy declines.
A second bottom test often occurs before halving cycles, such as when BTC fell from $10,500 to $3,800 before the 2020 halving. Current attention should be paid to whether this pattern reoccurs.
II. Macroeconomic Risk Factors
Policy impact
Trump's new tariff policy (25% tariff) has triggered risk-averse sentiment, with USDT's over-the-counter premium reaching 1.5%. If the policy continues to ferment, it may exacerbate the risk of capital withdrawal.
Expectations for Fed interest rate cuts have been delayed, the volatility index for U.S. stocks has risen, and the correlation between the crypto market and macro liquidity has strengthened.
On-chain data warning
Miner cost pressure: Under the current BTC price, the electricity cost of some mining machines accounts for over 80%. If the price remains below $75,000, it may trigger miner sell-offs.
Nansen data shows that the net outflow of smart money addresses has increased over the past 7 days, with some institutions turning to stablecoins for hedging.
III. Second Bottom Test Probability Assessment
Scenario Probability Trigger Conditions Target Price
Strong rebound 30% Stabilizing above $78,500 resistance + ETF net inflow Breakthrough $82,000
Consolidation bottoming 45% Fluctuation within the $72,300-$78,500 range Maintain box fluctuation
Second bottom test 25% Break below $72,300 + large-scale miner sell-off Drop to $68,000
IV. Operation Suggestions
Short-term strategy
Spot holders: It is recommended to set a stop loss at $72,300. If there is a significant drop below this level, reduce positions.
Contract traders: Pay attention to the breakthrough of the $78,500 resistance level. Avoid high-leverage operations until the trend is confirmed.
Medium to long-term observation
Key monitoring on-chain indicators: If Glassnode's SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) remains below 1, it indicates increasing selling pressure.
Policy tracking: The release of U.S. CPI data on April 15 may become a turning point for the market.
V. Risk Warning
The current market is policy-driven, with risks of a second bottom test coexisting with historical buying opportunities. It is recommended to adopt a 'pyramid accumulation' strategy, gradually building positions if it drops to around $68,000, while avoiding highly volatile altcoins.