Technical analysis $BTC
Analysis time 21:41 (UTC+7) on April 6, 2025
Post time 21:51 (UTC+7) on April 6, 2025
1. Overview of the trend
📉 Short-term trend: Bearish
Current price: 82,443.9 USDT
The price has broken strongly below all three main EMA lines:
EMA(34) = 83,069.2
EMA(89) = 83,299.4
EMA(200) = 83,661.1
→ This is a sign that the downtrend is dominating.
Recent high: 84,244.5 → Formed a lower high pattern.
STOCH RSI: Extremely oversold (STOCHRSI = 8.0, MASTOCHRSI = 2.7) → The price may have a short-term bounce (dead cat bounce).
2. Supporting indicators
🟠 EMA (Exponential Moving Average):
Both EMA(34), EMA(89), and EMA(200) are sloping down → indicating strong and clear downward momentum.
🔵 RSI:
RSI(30): 44.1
RSI(50): 46.4
RSI(70): 47.2
→ All three are below the neutral threshold of 50 and are trending downward, not yet in the oversold area but indicating high selling pressure.
🟣 STOCH RSI:
Below 20 → Clear oversold signal → high probability of a technical bounce in the short term.
3. Possible scenarios
✅ Scenario 1: Technical rebound after a strong drop
Probability: 50%
Reason:
STOCH RSI oversold.
A small green candle has appeared at the bottom 82,155.4.
Key resistance area to watch: 82,970 – 83,070 (coinciding with EMA34).
If the price rebounds but does not exceed EMA34 → continue to drop.
⚠️ Scenario 2: Continue to drop after a rebound
Probability: 70%
Reason:
Clear downtrend structure.
EMA aligned with a consistent downward direction.
No signs of strong reversal.
If the price tests the 83,000–83,100 area but is rejected, the possibility of dropping to the support area of 81,800 – 82,000.
🚨 Scenario 3: Strong drop breaking below 82,155
Probability: 30%
Reason:
Volume is not spiking → no panic selling yet.
However, if unexpected bad news appears, it could push the price down to 81,500 or lower.
🔎 Note: The percentages are assessed based on the current price trend, the position of the EMA lines, signals from the RSI indicator, STOCH RSI, and recent candle behavior. This is a relative assessment, not a definite commitment, and needs to be continuously updated according to new market fluctuations.
4. Suggested entry points
🎯 Trend-following trading (priority)
SELL order (short):
Entry: around 82,950 – 83,100 (EMA34 resistance)
SL (stop loss): above 83,400 (above the recent high)
TP (take profit):
TP1: 82,200
TP2: 81,800
Reason:
Trade in the main downtrend.
EMA is a good dynamic resistance in a downtrend.
RSI indicator still shows strong selling pressure.
📉 Counter-trend trading (high risk)
BUY order (short-term long):
Entry: around 82,200 – 82,300
SL: below 82,000
TP:
TP1: 82,950
TP2: 83,050
Reason:
STOCH RSI oversold.
Green candles appear at temporary support.
⚠️ Note: This trade is only a short-term technical bottom-fishing, high risk if there is no confirmatory volume.
✅ Conclusion
The main trend is still down.
Prefer to wait for a rebound to the technical resistance area to enter a sell order.
Counter-trend trading requires careful risk management and quick profit-taking.
Do not "chase the peak" when the market has a clear trend.
Thank you
Thank you for taking the time to read this analysis. In a fast-paced and information-saturated world like today, your choice to stop and thoroughly read a technical analysis is something I greatly appreciate. It reflects not only an interest in the market but also the trait of a disciplined trader who considers and researches before making decisions. I hope the data, indicators, and scenarios presented have provided you with a clearer, objective perspective on your investment journey.
Your presence – whether reading, responding, or silently following – is always motivation for me to maintain accuracy, objectivity, and professionalism in every analysis. If you find the article useful, don't hesitate to come back for future analysis sessions. I'm always ready to update, accompany, and provide in-depth perspectives to help you stand firm in the face of market fluctuations. Wishing you safe and effective trading! 📊💡
Disclaimer:
This article was created by AI and is not financial investment advice.
The cryptocurrency market is very volatile, and you should conduct thorough research before making investment decisions.
All investment decisions and risks arising from the use of information in this article are the responsibility of the reader.
Article data was taken at the time of analysis.
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