Weekly Technical Analysis:
Moving Average Analysis (MA5, MA13, MA33, MA55):
MA5 (5-week Moving Average): The current price is below MA5, indicating a weak short-term trend.
MA13 (13-week Moving Average): The price is also below MA13, suggesting pressure on the medium-term trend.
MA33 (33-week Moving Average): The price is close to MA33; if it breaks below this moving average, it may trigger greater selling pressure.
MA55 (55-week Moving Average): The current price is still above MA55, indicating that the long-term trend has not fully turned bearish.
It is important to note that MA5 shows a trend of crossing below MA33. If a death cross forms, it may signal further downside risk.
MACD Indicator:
DIF Line and DEA Line: The DIF line (fast line) has crossed below the DEA line (slow line), forming a death cross and is located below the zero axis, indicating an increase in bearish momentum.
MACD Histogram: The histogram shows negative values and is trending larger, further confirming the dominance of bearish strength.
Trading Volume:
Recent weekly trading volume has increased, but the price has failed to rise effectively, which may indicate significant selling pressure at the current price level.
Prediction and Conclusion:
Based on the analysis of the above indicators, BTC's weekly trend shows a dominance of bears. If MA5 crosses below MA33 to form a death cross, and the price remains below MA33, it may indicate the establishment of a medium-term downtrend. The death cross of the MACD indicator and the negative histogram also support this view.
Given that the current price is close to MA33, attention should be paid to the support strength of this moving average. If the price breaks below MA33 at the weekly close, and MA5 and MA33 form a death cross, it may confirm the downtrend. Conversely, if the price can find support at MA33 and rebound, the strength of the rebound and the accompanying trading volume should be observed to determine whether it is likely to return to an upward channel.
Risk Warning:
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; the above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should formulate reasonable investment strategies based on their own risk tolerance and strictly implement stop-loss measures.