Recent news regarding Bitcoin has shown a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments. On the policy front, the Federal Reserve's March meeting released dovish signals, slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction and hinting at a possible interest rate cut in June, which has led to rising market expectations for liquidity easing. The regulatory environment in the U.S. is becoming more relaxed, with the SEC accepting applications for spot ETFs for Grayscale's XRP and Dogecoin, and Hashdex planning to expand its Bitcoin and altcoin combination ETF, strengthening the logic for institutional capital entry. Although mainland China has not directly opened up cryptocurrency trading, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area policy allows for cross-border purchases of compliant investment products from Hong Kong and Macau, indirectly boosting market confidence.
In terms of market dynamics, MicroStrategy continues to increase its Bitcoin holdings to 461,000 coins, and institutions like BlackRock have surpassed 3 million coins in holdings, indicating long-term institutional confidence. However, Binance founder CZ still faces compliance questions after his release from imprisonment, compounded by whales placing $365 million high-leverage short positions near the $84,000 mark, which has weakened short-term market sentiment. Geopolitical risks are escalating, with the Trump administration's tariff policies potentially raising inflation expectations, while turmoil in the Middle East could stimulate demand for safe-haven assets.
The technical and news aspects resonate with each other, as Bitcoin breaks through the “Bullish Megaphone” pattern, with a short-term target pointing towards $90,000, and Standard Chartered even predicting a surge to $200,000 by the end of 2025. Investors need to pay attention to the actual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in June and the uncertainty of regulatory policies before the U.S. elections. If the resistance level at $85,000 is broken with significant volume, it may open a new round of upward cycles; conversely, if it fails to hold the support at $80,000, it could trigger a systemic correction.
