#鲍威尔发言 Key Points:

1. **Monetary Policy Stance**

- **Maintain High Interest Rates**: Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve needs more confidence in confirming that inflation will continue to fall to the 2% target, and may keep interest rates at the current high level (5.25%-5.5%) in the short term.

- **Data Dependence**: Reiterated that policy adjustments will be based on economic data (especially inflation and employment), avoiding preset paths.

2. **Inflation Progress**

- **Cautiously Optimistic**: Acknowledged that inflation has significantly declined from its peak (with core PCE year-on-year around 2.6% in 2024), but inflation in the service sector (such as housing and healthcare) remains sticky.

- **Risk Balance**: Need to be wary of premature rate cuts leading to a rebound in inflation, or delaying rate cuts impacting the labor market.

3. **Economy and Employment**

- **Possibility of Soft Landing**: Believes the U.S. economic growth is slowing but remains resilient, with the labor market gradually balancing (unemployment rate slightly rising to around 4%).

- **Neutral Interest Rate Assessment**: Implied that the long-term neutral interest rate (r*) may be higher than pre-pandemic levels, affecting the future space for policy easing.

4. **Market Expectation Management**

- **Downplaying Aggressive Rate Cuts**: Refuted the market's bets on multiple rate cuts in 2024, stating that the Federal Reserve will make decisions "one meeting at a time."