1. Current market overview: Is a rebound after overselling imminent?
- Key support/resistance:
- Support level: $0.4 (if broken, will test the psychological level of $0.20)
- Resistance level: $0.545, target $0.6 after breaking (previous high pressure).
(Short-term swing 1-3 days)
- Long opportunity:
- Entry conditions: Stabilize above $0.45 and increase 15-minute trading volume, target $0.543→$0.6.
- Stop loss: $0.43 (if broken, will trigger stop loss).
- Short opportunity:
- Trigger signal: Break below $0.43 with increasing volume, target $0.4→$0.398 (weekly support). If broken below 0.4, target 0.2
- Hedging tool: Buy $0.4 put options (7-day duration).
2. Mid-term layout (1-3 months)
- Operation suggestions:
- Build positions in batches at the current price, total position ≤15%, stop loss $0.4, target $1.2.
3. Long-term value (6 months+)
On-chain data monitoring and risk warning
1. Whale movements: If the top 10 addresses reduce their holdings by more than 5% in a single day, be wary of major players exiting.
2. Net flow of exchanges: The current exchange inventory ratio is 12%, if it suddenly increases to over 20%, it may trigger selling pressure.
3. Policy risk: The U.S. SEC's regulatory stance on 'previously Fantom-related tokens' is unclear, suggesting to allocate 10% of the position to stablecoin investments for hedging.
Data sources: CoinGecko, Nansen, DeFiLlama
Disclaimer: The market has risks, strategies need to be dynamically adjusted, do not blindly follow trades.