Powell warned that new tariffs could raise inflation and slow economic growth, which makes sense. From an economic perspective, tariffs are essentially a trade barrier that increases the cost of imported goods. These costs are often passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices, which is inflationary pressure. Additionally, if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods, U.S. exports may be hampered, further dragging down economic growth. Powell mentioned these risks, indicating that he is concerned about the potential chain reaction of tariffs on the real economy, rather than just theoretical speculation.

He also said the Federal Reserve would 'wait and see,' reflecting a cautious stance on monetary policy. The primary responsibilities of the Federal Reserve are to maintain price stability and promote employment. If tariffs lead to soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to cool down the economy; but if economic growth slows, it may need to cut rates to stimulate the economy. These two possibilities make the policy outlook 'highly uncertain,' as Powell stated. Therefore, his choice to wait may be to gather more data before taking action, avoiding early moves that could create market turmoil.

The phrase 'beyond expectations' is quite interesting. Trump's tariff policy may be more aggressive in scale or scope than the Federal Reserve anticipated, catching Powell somewhat off guard. However, he emphasized the 'risks of sustained inflation,' also suggesting that he is more concerned about inflation going out of control than short-term economic slowdown. This may reflect the current economic environment—inflation is already a sensitive topic, and any additional push could make the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation more challenging.

In my view, Powell's stance is very pragmatic. He did not directly criticize the tariff policy (after all, the Federal Reserve tries to remain neutral), but focused on its economic consequences, reminding everyone where the risks lie. At the same time, he is not in a hurry to express specific countermeasures, showing a clear understanding of the complex situation. However, if tariffs are indeed widely implemented, how long he can maintain this 'wait and see' strategy is a question. The market and the public may urge the Federal Reserve for a clear signal, and at that point, merely waiting may not be enough. #鲍威尔发言