Powell warned that new tariffs could raise inflation and slow economic growth, which makes sense. From an economic perspective, tariffs are essentially a trade barrier that increases the cost of imported goods. These costs are typically passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices, which is inflationary pressure. Furthermore, if other countries impose retaliatory tariffs on American goods, U.S. exports may be hindered, further dragging down economic growth. Powell mentioned these risks, indicating that he is concerned about the potential ripple effects of tariffs on the real economy, rather than mere theoretical speculation.

He also stated that the Federal Reserve would 'wait and see,' reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy. The primary responsibilities of the Federal Reserve are to maintain price stability and promote employment. If tariffs lead to soaring inflation, the Federal Reserve might need to raise interest rates to cool the economy; but if economic growth slows down, it may need to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy. These two possibilities make the policy outlook 'highly uncertain,' as Powell said. Therefore, his choice to wait may be an attempt to gather more data, avoiding premature actions that could disrupt the market.

The phrase 'beyond expectations' is quite interesting. Trump's tariff policy may be more aggressive in scale or scope than the Federal Reserve had anticipated, catching Powell a bit off guard. However, he emphasized the 'risks of sustained inflation,' also suggesting that he is more concerned about runaway inflation rather than a short-term economic slowdown. This may reflect the current economic environment—inflation has already become a sensitive topic, and any additional push could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of controlling inflation.

In my view, Powell's stance is very pragmatic. He did not directly criticize the tariff policy (after all, the Federal Reserve strives to remain neutral), but focused on its economic consequences, reminding everyone where the risks lie. At the same time, he is not rushing to state specific countermeasures, demonstrating a clear understanding of the complex situation. However, if tariffs are indeed implemented widely, how long he can maintain this 'wait and see' strategy is a question. The market and the public may urge the Federal Reserve to provide a clear signal, and at that time, merely waiting might not be enough. #鲍威尔发言