My Expectations for Jerome Powell's Speech Today:

1. A Cautiously Hawkish Tone:

• Powell is unlikely to show any near-term intention to cut interest rates, especially after some inflation data has risen recently.

• However, he will be careful not to induce panic in the markets, so his tone will be 'cautious', but he may reiterate that rate cuts depend on further data and nothing more.

2. Regarding New Tariffs (Trump on Venezuelan Oil):

• Powell will try to be reserved and avoid political confrontation, but he may indicate that new tariffs could increase short-term inflation risks.

• This could serve as an additional justification for not rushing into rate cuts.

3. On U.S. Economic Outlook:

• He is likely to reiterate that the U.S. economy is 'relatively strong' but under 'close watch'.

• He may warn of potential slowdown if geopolitical and tariff pressures continue.