Multidimensional assessment based on 15-minute candlesticks and key data
1. Current Market Dynamics and Core Contradictions
Price Performance
Intraday Trend: ETH rebounded from $1,780 to $1,844 in the morning, but fell back under bearish pressure, hitting a low of $1,747, currently quoted around $1,770, with a day decline of 1.8%.
Key Indicators:
Market Cap Ratio: ETH/BTC exchange rate drops to 0.034 (five-year low), reflecting a concentration of funds into Bitcoin.
On-chain Activity: Active addresses decreased by 12% month-over-month, Gas fees dropped to **$0.000012** (yearly low), indicating weak user transaction demand.
Core Contradiction
Bearish Pressure:
U.S. tariff policies trigger risk-averse sentiment, leading to the sell-off of risk assets.
Ethereum spot ETF saw a net outflow of $3.6 million in a single day, indicating significant withdrawal pressure from institutional funds.
Potential Support:
Oversold Recovery: 1-hour RSI is 38 (close to oversold zone), indicating short-term rebound demand.
Technical Upgrade Expectations: Pectra upgrade testnet is about to launch, which may boost market confidence.
2. Key Signals and Strategies from 15-Minute Candlestick Charts
Long and Short Signal Identification
Bullish Signals:
Volume Breakthrough: If the price stabilizes above $1,780 (15-minute MA20) and volume increases to 200K+, a rebound may be triggered.
Divergence Recovery: MACD green bars shorten and DIF crosses above DEA, forming a bottom divergence structure.
Bearish Signals:
False Breakout Trap: If it rebounds to $1,800-$1,820 (previous high dense area) and then retreats with reduced volume, a second bottom test may occur.
Moving Average Resistance: MA7 ($1,790) and EMA30 ($1,810) create dual resistance.
Key Support and Resistance
Position Type Logic and Strategy: If the intraday low of $1,747 is broken, it may accelerate the decline to $1,700 (psychological level); if $1,770 holds, it may push up to $1,800, otherwise, it will continue to fall. Breaking the psychological level of $1,800 may test the resistance range of $1,820-$1,850. $1,850 is a strong resistance, and the key defensive point for bears is at the 4-hour MA60.
3. Evening Operation Strategy (19:00-24:00)
Bullish Opportunity
Entry Condition: Price stabilizes with low volume in the range of $1,750-$1,770, and MACD shows a golden cross.
Targets: First target $1,800 (+1.7%), second target $1,820 (+2.8%).
Stop Loss: Exit if it falls below $1,740.
Bearish Opportunity
Entry Condition: Rebound to $1,800-$1,810 faces resistance, with reduced volume and RSI not overbought.
Targets: First target $1,770 (-1.7%), second target $1,747 (-1.3%).
Stop Loss: Exit if it breaks above $1,825.
4. Key Events and Data for Tomorrow's Morning Session
Policy Risk
U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Report (released at 20:30): If new job numbers are below 200,000, it may alleviate interest rate hike concerns, favoring a rebound in ETH.
Federal Reserve Official Speech (22:00): Focus on Powell's statements regarding inflation and interest rate cuts; hawkish comments may suppress risk assets.
On-chain Alerts
Miner Behavior: If miner positions decrease for three consecutive days (current weekly net outflow of 1.8%), be cautious of intensified selling pressure.
Whale Movements: Monitor net inflow to exchanges; if it exceeds $50 million in a single day, it may indicate a selling wave.
5. Risk Warnings and Position Management
Volatility Risk: Current ETH futures positions reach $14.5 billion, with a funding rate of **-0.005%**, bears are dominant but need to guard against short squeezes.
Stop Loss Discipline: Short-term positions ≤5%, single trade losses controlled within 2% of total funds.
Hedging Suggestions: Allocate BTC/USDC stablecoin pairs (30% allocation) to hedge systemic risks.
6. Comprehensive Conclusion
Short-term (24 hours): Likely to oscillate in the range of $1,740-$1,840, with breakthroughs dependent on positive policy or inflow of funds on-chain.
Medium-term (1 week): If it stabilizes above $1,750, it is expected to recover to $1,850-$1,900; if it breaks below $1,700, it may decline to $1,600.
Operation Guidelines:
👉 If the rebound does not break 1830, short positions should be lightly followed; 1845
👉 If the decline does not break 1760, long positions may bet on a rebound; 1745
👉 Reduce positions before data release, strictly adhere to stop loss discipline.
(Data as of April 4, 2025, 24:00; strategies need to be adjusted based on real-time market conditions)
