Tonight's Non-Farm Payroll Report + Old Powell's Speech! Under the tariff storm of Old Trump, the Fed faces a 'policy test'. Will the 'black swan' of tariffs ignite 'Black Friday' tonight? Or will it be a turning point for the tight stone field?

It can be said that after experiencing yesterday's tariff shock, investors' trading confidence has now become particularly sensitive and fragile.

The non-farm employment data for March will be released at 8:30 PM tonight. Many economists' median expectations show that the non-farm employment numbers in March are expected to increase by 135,000, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged from last month, staying at 4.1%.

In fact, regardless of whether tonight's non-farm data is good or bad, it remains quite difficult to predict, and the market risks brought by the data may have certain asymmetry!

Finally, on this highly anticipated non-farm night, the financial market will face a key test a few hours after the non-farm report is released:

The head of the Federal Reserve, Old Powell, will deliver a keynote speech on the economic outlook at 11:25 PM Beijing time on Friday in Arlington, Virginia. This will be his first appearance since Old Trump's tariff plan was announced.

Some 'experts' believe the importance of Old Powell's speech on Friday may even outweigh the non-farm employment report. Currently, the market has almost completely digested the expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in June, but all comments from Fed officials on tariff issues are actually more hawkish. If Old Powell's wording also turns hawkish, then people may need to be cautious about the market's expectations for a Fed rate cut, which could lead to serious repricing. Overall, tonight in the tight stone field could be another night of liquidation.