On April 3, Trump announced a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods and additional tariffs on dozens of countries/regions. The U.S. will implement a 20% retaliatory tariff on the EU country by country and a 24% tariff on goods imported from Japan. The White House stated that the baseline tariff rate (10%) will take effect on April 5 at midnight, while the so-called 'reciprocal tariffs' will take effect on April 9 at midnight. Following the announcement of Trump's tariffs, U.S. short-term interest rate futures pricing indicated that the Federal Reserve is expected to make four interest rate cuts this year, starting in June.

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The U.S. House Financial Services Committee voted on Wednesday to pass a bill regulating stablecoins. The bill, titled (Stablecoin Transparency and Accountability for a Better Ledger Economy) (abbreviated as STABLE), was passed in the committee with 32 votes in favor and 17 against. The bill will create a framework for USD-backed stablecoins. It stipulates reserve and capital requirements, including one-to-one reserve backing and anti-money laundering standards. The Arizona House of Representatives passed the BTC Reserve Bill (SB 1025 and SB 1373), with the next steps being a third reading followed by a final vote in the House. If passed, it will be sent to the governor for signing. Franklin Templeton, with $1.6 trillion in assets under management, is considering launching a cryptocurrency ETP in Europe to meet customer demand for cryptocurrency products. Coinmarketcap data shows the altcoin season index currently at 14, just 1 point away from its year-to-date low. In the past 90 days, about 14 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap have outperformed BTC. CZ stated that his philosophy is to focus on fundamentals, forget about those fancy business models, and focus on core products, user growth, revenue/profit, and team strength. Long-term bets often yield disproportionate returns for early adopters. There will be many failures along the way, but a few successes are enough to make up for those failures. Nate Geraci, president of The ETF Store, predicts that index-based cryptocurrency ETFs will be approved by the end of the year (if not sooner).

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated that the market does not like 'Tariff Day', and if BTC can hold $76,500 from now until U.S. tax day (April 15), then it will be fine. Trump's tariff plan further demonstrates his commitment to reversing imbalances, and the issue for U.S. Treasury bonds is that without U.S. dollar exports, foreign capital cannot purchase bonds. The Federal Reserve and the banking system must intervene to ensure the normal operation of the Treasury bond market, which means restarting accommodative monetary policy. Fidelity Digital Assets' report stated that historically, BTC's acceleration phase typically sees two waves of major uptrends, with the first wave occurring after the election. If it can break the previous high again, the starting point for the second wave may be around $110,000. BTC's typical characteristics are similar to its performance when it broke $20,000 in December 2020. Despite a nearly 25% pullback from historical highs, recent performance aligns with the average pullback magnitude after acceleration phases in previous cycles. On April 2, U.S. BTC spot ETFs saw an inflow of $218.1 million. ETH spot ETFs saw an outflow of $51.3 million. The cryptocurrency derivatives market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) set a record in the first quarter of this year. CME reported that the nominal daily trading volume of cryptocurrency products on its platform in the first quarter was $11.3 billion.

On April 3, Trump announced a 10% blanket tariff on all imported goods and additional tariffs on about 60 countries/regions with the largest trade imbalances with the U.S. The U.S. will implement a 20% retaliatory tariff on the EU country by country and a 24% tariff on goods imported from Japan. The U.S. will impose a 46% tariff on Vietnam; a 10% tariff on the UK; a 31% tariff on Switzerland; a 49% tariff on Cambodia; a 36% tariff on Thailand; a 30% tariff on South Africa; a 32% tariff on Indonesia, and so on. Trump adopted a combination of 'baseline tariffs' and 'one country one tariff rate', with the tariff rate exceeding market expectations, raising investor concerns that it could drag the U.S. economy into recession. The U.S. stock market saw panic selling, with significant declines; the Nasdaq index fell by 5.8% during the day, the S&P 500 index fell by nearly 4.1%, and the Dow Jones futures index fell by nearly 3.4%. The U.S. dollar index dropped significantly to 101.34, down 2%. The yields on U.S. 10-year and 2-year Treasury futures fell by 10 basis points, reporting 4.06% and 3.79%, respectively. Gold prices fell to $3,059/ounce, down 2.3%. The cryptocurrency market fell across the board, with BTC spiking to $88,000 and then dropping to $82,000. The White House stated that the baseline tariff rate (10%) will take effect on April 5 at midnight, and reciprocal tariffs will take effect on April 9 at midnight. The U.S. Treasury Secretary (regarding tariffs, did not participate in negotiations) is looking to see if there are any negotiations before April 9 (the effective date of reciprocal tariffs).

After the announcement of Trump's tariffs, traders believe the probability of the Federal Reserve making four interest rate cuts this year is close to 50%, whereas previous forecasts suggested only three rate cuts. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates until June is 30.5%. K33 Research Director Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman stated that the U.S. BTC reserves must submit a report before April 5, clarifying their authority to transfer digital assets to that reserve. Details of the neutral acquisition strategy are expected to be disclosed no earlier than 60 days after the executive order is signed (around May 5), at which point U.S. Treasury Secretary Basent will submit a legal and investment assessment report on BTC reserves, reigniting market enthusiasm as the heat from tariff news fades. Nansen's Chief Analyst Aurelie Barthere stated that, based on Nansen data, the probability of cryptocurrency prices bottoming out from now until June is 70%. Tariff discussions serve as market indicators, and once the most challenging parts of the tariff negotiations are over, clearer opportunities will emerge for cryptocurrencies and risk assets to ultimately bottom out. Tariff news frequently trends. Trump's irrational behavior poses risks to the U.S. risk market, putting the Federal Reserve in a dilemma; raising tariffs can lead to inflation, which is unfavorable for rate cuts; raising tariffs can also weaken the U.S. economy further, necessitating rate cuts. Powell stated last month that 'tariff-induced inflation is temporary', and on Thursday the market increased expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year from three times to four times, starting in June. The upcoming meetings for monetary policy decisions after June are in June, July, September, October, and December. The market is currently digesting the negative impact of Trump's tariffs (note the volatility risks). Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday evening, and attention should be paid to his inclination to cut rates under tariff pressure. Trump's tariff news is a long-standing issue, and the market will need the Federal Reserve to loosen monetary policy.