One, Market Review: Energy Accumulation in Volatility
- Short-term Volatility: BTC fluctuated between $82,000 - $86,000 over the past week, with trading volume declining; the MACD histogram shows weakening bullish momentum, but the weekly level still stands above the 200-day moving average (key support at $78,000)
- Whale Accumulation: Over the past 7 days, more than 12,000 BTC have been transferred from exchanges to cold wallets, with holding costs concentrated at $87,000 (short-term holder cost line), and if stabilized, may trigger a short squeeze.
- Unrealized Profit Rate Divergence: Long-term holders have a 347% unrealized profit, while short-term holders face a 6% loss. Historical data shows this signal often indicates mid-term rebound opportunities.
Two, Core Drivers: Three Engines of the 2025 Bull Market
1. Institutional Entry Accelerates
- ETF Continues to Attract Investment: U.S. Spot BTC ETF cumulative holdings reached 31%, with a net inflow of $17.5 billion in Q4; BlackRock's IBIT saw a weekly inflow of $1.45 billion, with institutional buying acting as a price 'ballast'.
- National Strategic Reserves: El Salvador plans to increase its holdings by 20,000 BTC, and Trump intends to promote a 'BTC Strategic Reserve Plan,' with favorable policies potentially serving as a breakthrough catalyst.
- Historical patterns show that 18-24 months after halving is the peak of a bull market. The current cycle (April 2024 halving) technically points to a target price of $125,000 - $200,000 by the end of 2025.
- Supply tightening alongside ETF demand; the MVRV ratio (currently 2.56) may trigger FOMO emotions if it breaks 3.2.
- Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: A rate cut cycle may begin in June, with a weaker dollar driving a reassessment of risk assets, enhancing BTC's hedging against inflation.
- Regulatory Clarity: Progress on U.S. crypto legislation and issuance of licenses in emerging markets like the UAE reduce compliance uncertainty.
Three, Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Long-Short Battle
- Bullish Defense Line: $78,000 (200-day moving average), $87,000 (on-chain cost area).
- Breakthrough Target: Stabilizing above $92,000 may test the previous high of $110,000, with Elliott Wave Theory pointing to a mid-term target of $125,000.
- Perpetual contract funding rates turn positive, but no extreme leverage is observed. Market sentiment is 'neutral to bullish.'
- Option IV dropped to 45%, suggesting volatility compression may lead to a directional breakout.
- Four, Trading Strategy: Optimal Risk-Reward Ratio
| Spot Position | Accumulate on dips to $82,000 - $84,000 in batches | Stop loss below $78,000
| Hedge Portfolio | Buy BTC call options + short high beta altcoins | Dynamic balanced positions to avoid one-sided exposure !
1. Policy Black Swan: Delays in Trump's crypto policy rollout and ETF outflows exceeding expectations.
2. Technical Breakdown: If the support at $78,000 fails, it may trigger a panic sell-off to $70,000 (Predicted by former Bitmex CEO!)
3. Liquidity Crisis: A significant correction in U.S. stocks may lead to a correlated decline in the crypto market.