#SCDO中文社区
📢 SCDO is quietly rising, smart people have already started positioning, are you still watching?

I. Current Market Overview

As of April 3, 2025, BTC/USDT on Binance is reported at $81,775, a single-day drop of 5.88% (-$5,105), with an intra-day fluctuation of 8.5% ($81,257-$88,398), marking the largest single-day volatility since November 2024. 24-hour trading volume surged to $129.8 billion (+65.5%), indicating a heated tug-of-war between bulls and bears.

Key Data:

  • Fear Index: 25 (Extreme Fear)

  • Funding Rate: -0.025% (bearish dominance)

  • Futures Open Interest: Decreased by 18% (bulls accelerating exit)

II. Multi-dimensional Technical Deconstruction

  1. Moving Average System

    • Key Cross: 50-day moving average ($85,000) crosses below 200-day moving average ($80,000) forming a 'death cross', historical data shows the average decline after this signal appears is 14% over 30 days.

    • Dynamic Support:

      • First Support: $81,200 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level)

      • Strong Support: $78,000 (Q4 2024 low + options protection level)

  2. Divergence Signal

    • MACD: Daily death cross and histogram expands to -0.85, but a bottom divergence appears on the 4-hour level, indicating accumulation of short-term rebound momentum.

    • RSI: 30 (oversold area), but volume-weighted RSI is only 28, showing that bearish momentum has not been fully released.

  3. On-chain Structure

    • Whale Movements: 312,000 BTC (valued at $25.4 billion) transferred in a single day, of which 178,000 transferred to cold wallets, creating the largest single-day outflow record since 2023.

    • Miner Behavior: Mining pool hash rate decreased by 12%, some miners initiated shutdown protection (current total network hash rate 380 EH/s).

III. Macroeconomic Shocks and Market Sentiment

  1. Tariff Policy Transmission Chain

    • Direct Impact: Trump imposes tariffs on 185 countries, rising global trade costs elevate inflation expectations, BTC's safe-haven attribute as 'digital gold' fails, showing a negative correlation with gold of -0.67.

    • Liquidity Tightening: VIX index surges to 35, dollar index breaks 108, funds in the crypto market accelerate towards fiat and US Treasuries.

  2. Derivatives Market Anomalies

    • Options Block Trading: Buy put options expiring on April 25, 2025, with a strike price of $60,000 (notional value $100 million), deep out-of-the-money structure reflects extreme bearish sentiment.

    • Perpetual Contracts: Funding rate remains negative (-0.03%), short positions account for 68%, and liquidation risk accumulates.

IV. Key Price Levels and Scenario Simulation

Scenario Trigger Conditions Target Probability Panic continuation breaks below $78,000 + US stocks continue to decline $72,000 35% Fluctuation builds bottom $81,200-$85,000 range on low volume horizontal fluctuations 45% Short covering Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts + whales bottom fishing $90,000 20%

Technical Resonance Points:

  • Weekly Level: Price drops below the rising trend line extended from the 2023 high ($73,000), mid-term adjustment may extend to Q3.

  • Monthly Target: If it fails to hold $78,000, the next target points to $65,000 (the starting point of the 2022 bull market).

V. Operational Strategy Optimization

  1. Short-term Trading (1-3 days)

    • Short Position: Layout on rebound to the range of $83,300-$83,800, stop loss at $84,200, target $81,000-$80,000 (for reference).

    • Long Position: Only enter lightly when it stabilizes above $81,200 and trading volume increases by more than 20%, stop loss at $80,000, target $85,000.

  2. Medium to Long-term Layout (1-3 months)

    • Dollar Cost Averaging: Build positions in the range of $78,000-$80,000 in batches, hold until the end of 2025 (target $100,000).

    • Hedging Portfolio: Long BTC/Short SOL exchange rate hedge (may widen the price difference if competition among public chains intensifies).

  3. Institutional-level Risk Control

    • Options Protection: Buy $75,000 put options (premium about 3%), hedging against black swan risks.

    • Cross-market Arbitrage: Short BTC futures while buying gold ETFs to capture rotation opportunities in safe-haven assets.

VI. Risk Warnings and Data Tracking

  • Core Indicators:

    • On-chain Active Addresses: A drop below 500,000/day (currently 580,000) may trigger further selling.

    • ETF Fund Flow: Focus on changes in VanEck spot ETF positions (currently net inflow of $220 million/day).

  • Policy Risk: SEC's final ruling on Coinbase's spot ETF (April 10) may trigger secondary volatility.

Conclusion: BTC is in a resonance window of macro pressure and technical breakdown, short-term vigilance is needed for panic selling to extend to $78,000, but oversold structure may give rise to a technical rebound. It is recommended that investors adopt an 'event-driven + range trading' strategy, focusing on the April 5 non-farm payroll data and Federal Reserve officials' speeches to guide market sentiment.