—— A key decision point under the intertwining of long and short positions.
One, Today's Core Market Logic
Technical Aspect: The struggle between bearish pressure and potential support.
Daily Level:
ETH price has been under pressure recently, hitting a low of $1785.8 today, followed by a slight rebound, with the current price around $1801.43. The MACD indicator shows that bearish momentum still dominates, and the RSI is in the oversold area, suggesting a possible technical rebound in the short term.4-Hour Level:
The price is running near the lower Bollinger Band, and the KDJ indicator shows an oversold state, suggesting a possible rebound demand in the short term. However, the upper moving averages (such as EMA30) are putting pressure on the price, and the strength of the rebound needs to be monitored with trading volume.
On-chain Data: Reduced whale activity, insufficient market confidence.
Whale Position Changes:
Recent data shows that the number of large ETH transactions has decreased by 63.8% since February 25, indicating a significant reduction in whale activity. Additionally, reports indicate that in the past two weeks, whales have sold a total of about 760,000 ETH, which may exert downward pressure on market prices.Liquidity Risk:
Two major whale addresses on MakerDAO face liquidation risk; if the ETH price falls below $1787, approximately $229 million in liquidations will be triggered, potentially causing a chain reaction in the market.
Macro Event Driven
Impact of Options Expiration:
Today, approximately $371 million in ETH options are expiring, with the maximum pain point around $1850. The market may fluctuate around this price level, and attention should be paid to the price performance in this area.
Two, Today's Key Support and Resistance
Support and Resistance Logic Basis: $1780 support/maximum pain point of options; $1750 psychological barrier/$1900 psychological key point; daily EMA30 resistance; $1700 and $1950 important integer points/previous high resistance.
Three, Today's Operational Strategy
Short Position Opportunities
Entry Range: $1850-1870
Stop Loss: Above $1900
Target: $1800-1750
Logic: If the price rebounds to around $1850 and faces resistance, consider opening a short position, targeting the previous support level.
Testing Long Positions
Entry Range: $1750-1780
Stop Loss: Below $1700
Target: $1850-1900
Logic: If the price falls back to around $1750 and shows signs of stabilization, consider attempting to open a long position with a light position, targeting the upper resistance level.
Four, Tomorrow's (April 4th) Market Projection
Scenario One (Probability 50%): Continued decline.
Trigger Condition: Whales continue to sell, further undermining market confidence.
Path: The price breaks below $1780 and further drops to $1750.
Key Indicators: Increased trading volume, enhanced bearish momentum.
Scenario Two (Probability 30%): Technical Rebound.
Trigger Condition: RSI remains in the oversold territory, triggering technical buying.
Path: The price rebounds to the range of $1850-1900.
Key Indicators: MACD histogram shortens, KDJ indicator golden cross.
Scenario Three (Probability 20%): Consolidation.
Trigger Condition: The market is in a strong wait-and-see sentiment, lacking a clear direction.
Path: The price fluctuates narrowly between $1780 and $1850.
Strategy: Buy high and sell low, short-term operations.
Five, Risk Warning and Strategy Adjustment
Regulatory Risk: Attention should be paid to the SEC's regulatory dynamics regarding ETH-related products, which may affect market sentiment.
Liquidity Risk: The liquidation risk of whale positions may trigger a chain reaction in the market, requiring close monitoring of price performance at key support levels.
Stop Loss Discipline: Strictly set stop losses, control positions, and avoid significant losses due to severe market fluctuations.
Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; the above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Please participate in market trading cautiously based on your own risk tolerance.