Today, U.S. President Trump announced a large-scale 'reciprocal tariff' policy, planning to impose tariffs on at least 180 countries and regions worldwide, starting from a rate of 10% and going as high as 50%. This policy is not only one of the largest tariff measures in U.S. history, but it has also triggered widespread market concerns about an economic recession, leading to declines in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.
According to Trump's statement, this tariff policy will take effect on April 5, 2025, imposing a baseline tariff of 10% on all foreign products. For countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., higher individual reciprocal tariffs will be implemented, scheduled to take effect on April 9. Additionally, a 25% tariff will be imposed on cars sold to the U.S., which will take effect immediately on April 3.
The White House indicated that the core of this policy is the principle of reciprocity, aimed at correcting the long-standing trade imbalance between the U.S. and other countries. Taking China as an example, the new tariff policy will increase its tariff from the original 20% to 34%, with the effective tariff rate reaching 54%.
Undoubtedly, this measure has triggered a strong market reaction, with significant declines in both the stock market and the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin quickly fell from $87,000 to $82,670, before slightly rebounding to $83,391, resulting in a 24-hour decline of 1.3%. Ethereum also was not spared, once falling below the critical support level of $1,800.
At the same time, the stock market has also been severely hit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 indices all saw declines of 2% to 4%. In the tech sector, the stock prices of Apple, Amazon, and Nvidia fell by 7%, 6%, and 5%, respectively. This wave of market shock not only affected traditional financial markets but also put cryptocurrency mining companies under survival pressure, with related stocks like Core Scientific and MARA experiencing significant declines.
Market analysts point out that the increase in tariffs could lead to rising domestic inflation and trigger global trade tensions, further impacting economic growth. Currently, concerns about a U.S. economic recession are intensifying. Predictive markets show that the probability of a recession in the U.S. by 2025 has exceeded 50%.
However, despite the market's strong reaction to the tariff policy in the short term, some analysts believe that this risk-averse sentiment may be temporary. Although the tariff policy could lead to a slowdown in economic growth, it does not necessarily mean a full-blown recession will occur, and the U.S. economy is still expected to maintain a growth rate of about 2%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve may respond to this situation by lowering interest rates, thereby injecting liquidity into the market.
In the current market environment, the future trend of Bitcoin remains highly uncertain. Despite facing cost pressures from tariffs and fluctuations in market sentiment, Bitcoin is still considered an asset that can hedge against inflation. With more institutional investors participating, confidence in Bitcoin in the market is expected to gradually recover.
According to the latest market data, institutional holdings of Bitcoin are rapidly increasing. For example, a well-known buyer, Strategy, currently holds 528,185 BTC tokens, having purchased over $2.5 billion worth of digital assets in March. Meanwhile, Tether, the company behind the popular stablecoin USDT, has also purchased 8,888 BTC tokens and now holds nearly $8 billion worth of Bitcoin. This institutional 'FOMO' (fear of missing out) phenomenon indicates that an increasing number of traditional financial institutions are beginning to incorporate Bitcoin into their asset portfolios, further driving up market demand for Bitcoin.
Additionally, economic uncertainty and rising inflation pressures may further drive investors' funds into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold to cope with potential economic turbulence. Some analysts suggest that Trump's signed executive order allows the U.S. government to explore the possibility of purchasing Bitcoin without increasing budget burdens, and this new tariff revenue may become a source of funds for the U.S. to accumulate Bitcoin.
In summary, the impact of the U.S. tariff policy on the economy and the market is gradually becoming apparent. As recession expectations intensify, investors need to pay closer attention to market dynamics and carefully assess investment risks. For Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, future trends will be influenced by policies, market sentiment, and economic data. In the face of an uncertain economic environment, timely adjustments to investment strategies will be key for investors to cope with market fluctuations.