Insights from Historical Patterns
The acceleration phases of Bitcoin's past cycles (244 days in 2010-11, 261 days in 2013, and 280 days in 2017) have been progressively extended. This round, from July 15, 2024, to March 3, 2025, has lasted 232 days, nearing the peak window (244-280 days).
If the pattern continues, the peak may occur between early April and early May. Historical acceleration phases often end with an 'explosive peak', followed by a decline. The current volatility has risen to 51%, suggesting that significant movements are imminent.
This round of retracement has been mild, indicating a mature market with reduced volatility. The peak may not be as extreme as in the past but could still rise significantly. A 'consecutive 60-day new high' if it breaks above $110,000, may signify the final sprint.
On April 2, 2025, it will be the 262nd day of acceleration, close to the 2013 peak (261 days), potentially near the peak, requiring analysis of price and market sentiment.
Peak is imminent: break above $110,000, peak reached in April-May, followed by a pullback.
Peak has passed: no new highs in March-April, or has already declined.
Extended cycle: peak delayed until after May.
Conclusion
As of April 2, the peak is undetermined but within a critical window. If there is no breakthrough above $110,000 or a decline soon, the peak may have passed; if there is an increase, the peak is near. Attention should be paid to price, volatility, and sentiment.
The acceleration phases of Bitcoin's past cycles (244 days in 2010-11, 261 days in 2013, and 280 days in 2017) have been progressively extended. This round, from July 15, 2024, to March 3, 2025, has lasted 232 days, nearing the peak window (244-280 days).
If the pattern continues, the peak may occur between early April and early May. Historical acceleration phases often end with an 'explosive peak', followed by a decline. The current volatility has risen to 51%, suggesting that significant movements are imminent.
This round of retracement has been mild, indicating a mature market with reduced volatility. The peak may not be as extreme as in the past but could still rise significantly. A 'consecutive 60-day new high' if it breaks above $110,000, may signify the final sprint.
On April 2, 2025, it will be the 262nd day of acceleration, close to the 2013 peak (261 days), potentially near the peak, requiring analysis of price and market sentiment.
Peak is imminent: break above $110,000, peak reached in April-May, followed by a pullback.
Peak has passed: no new highs in March-April, or has already declined.
Extended cycle: peak delayed until after May.
Conclusion
As of April 2, the peak is undetermined but within a critical window. If there is no breakthrough above $110,000 or a decline soon, the peak may have passed; if there is an increase, the peak is near. Attention should be paid to price, volatility, and sentiment.
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