Fidelity Digital Assets' latest research report indicates that Bitcoin's current price trend aligns with the characteristics of historical acceleration cycles. Analysts emphasize: 'Referencing the cycles of 2010-2011, 2015, and 2017, the explosive peaks typically occur between days 244 to 280. This current cycle, starting from March 3, is only at day 232, indicating that the price's potential for an explosive breakout has not yet been fully released.'
Report data shows that Bitcoin tends to experience two major upward waves during the acceleration phase. Wainwright specifically highlighted a key observation indicator: if BTC surpasses its previous high during a 60-day rolling period, it will initiate a second wave of momentum starting from $110,000.
Historic decline of Bitcoin after the acceleration phase. Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research
Institutions ignore bearish signals and continue to accumulate
Despite Bitcoin's price failing to hold above the $100,000 mark since February 21, and the market being impacted by tariff policies and recession concerns, public companies are still aggressively increasing their holdings. MicroStrategy announced on March 31 that it purchased 22,048 BTC at an average price of $86,969, investing $1.92 billion in a single month; Bitcoin mining company MARA simultaneously disclosed plans to issue $2 billion in stock to raise funds for purchasing coins.
Japanese company Metaplanet follows the institutional trend by issuing 1.33 billion yen in corporate bonds to purchase Bitcoin. Game retailer GameStop has also proposed a $1.3 billion convertible bond issuance plan, indicating that part of the funds will be allocated for digital asset investments.
Historical decline verifies cyclical patterns
Fidelity's report compares the correction magnitude of previous cycles, pointing out that Bitcoin's 11.4% decline this year aligns perfectly with the 25% historical peak pullback, consistent with the market correction patterns of 2017 and 2020. Data indicates that the current price fluctuations have not exceeded historical norms, and institutional investors are using the pullback phase to establish strategic positions.
Days of Bitcoin's historical highs (rolling 60 days). Source: Fidelity Digital Assets Research
Wainwright proposed a quantitative observation index: tracking the number of days that set historical highs within a 60-day rolling period, which can serve as a basis for judging cyclical phases. The report shows that past acceleration cycles typically feature two major upward waves; if this cycle can break through the previous high again, it will establish a new price benchmark.
