Bitwise analyst Jeff Park's latest report points out that the Trump administration's tariff policy will trigger global macroeconomic turmoil, causing wealth shrinkage and a financial crisis in the short term, but will accelerate Bitcoin's emergence as a mainstream value storage tool in the long term. He emphasizes that countries will inevitably adopt inflationary fiscal policies to cope with the impacts of the trade war, leading to a rapid devaluation of fiat currency purchasing power, with funds shifting massively towards non-sovereign assets.
Park's analysis points out that 'tariff costs will be shared by the U.S. and its trade partners through inflation, but foreign economies will bear greater pressure and be forced to seek alternatives to hedge against currency devaluation risks.'
The stagflation effect impacts the world, as Bitcoin revisits its 2020 hedge path.
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned on April 2 that tariff policies have a 'stagflationary' impact globally: exporting countries face deflationary pressure while importing countries bear rising prices. He believes that the combination of debt levels and trade imbalances will ultimately drive structural changes in the international monetary system.
Nic Puckrin, founder of Coin Bureau, stated in an interview that if the trade war escalates comprehensively, the probability of a U.S. economic recession in 2025 will reach 40%. 'This will be an extremely chaotic situation for the world, but Bitcoin may replicate the 2020 COVID crisis model—after short-term volatility, it could reach new historical highs.'
The decline in U.S. Treasury yields conceals strategic intent; risk assets are expected to trend upward in the long term.
Under the logic of 'short-term pain for long-term gain,' Pompliano predicts that the low-interest-rate environment will stimulate borrowing demand, driving risk assets higher in the long term. Historical data supports this; after Bitcoin's short-term drop of 37% in March 2020, it surged over 500% in the following 12 months, confirming the 'crisis turns into opportunity' model.
In March 2020, Bitcoin suffered a short-term price shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and subsequently rebounded to historical highs during the bull market of 2020-2021.
Asset management firm Pompliano presents a bold view: the Trump administration may deliberately create shocks in the capital markets to force the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to alleviate the pressure of $31 trillion in national debt interest. Data shows that the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds has fallen from 4.66% in January to 4.0%, a new low for the term.