April 3, 2025
The tariff negative news was actually released nearly a month in advance and has already been digested for a long time. Therefore, Bitcoin has not even broken the low point of March 31. If the tariff had suddenly come out without any warning, it would definitely be considered a black swan event.
Negative news has landed
When negative news has not landed, it feels like a knife hanging over one's head, constantly worried about it stabbing oneself. Therefore, everyone is cautious, including consortiums, institutions, and whales. They are reluctant to make large moves unless they have insider information and can act in advance.
Once the negative news has landed, many people are no longer afraid. Whether the knife is stuck in the ground or in their own body, as long as there is no knife hanging over their heads, they won't be afraid. This is the psychological effect of negative news landing being positive.
Do retail investors still have hope?
Can you imagine the retail investors feeling desperate now? They are definitely desperate, watching the altcoins hit new lows, feeling very panicked. With such significant negative news released, they all think it will continue to fall, leading to panic selling and a stampede-like sell-off.
Will negative news lead to a sustained decline in the market? It depends on how strong the continuity of this negative news is. If the negative news is released and continues, it may still lead to a decline later; otherwise, the negative news landing would be a positive.
There is definitely hope. After all, the indicators at the macro level do not lie, various negative news has also landed, and most retail investors have been washed out. Those who should have been liquidated have been, so there is no reason for it to continue declining.
Therefore, I still see a big bull market, and after Bitcoin rises, it will usher in the altcoin season.