April 2, 2025
Dawn has come
Many people feel that the darkness before dawn has not yet arrived. In fact, the darkness before dawn has already passed, and dawn has come. However, it is at this stage that most people cannot hold on any longer and choose to exit. I do not stop those who choose to leave, especially those from the community. Their decision to leave is certainly well-considered, or they may have been following some bearish influencers in their operations. This is actually inconsequential; as I've said before, only 1% of people make money in the market.
It's indeed quite difficult to trade according to cycles because there are too many uncontrollable factors.
Altcoins are uncontrollable
This round is different from the previous ones in that altcoins are involved. In a bull market, Bitcoin either drains or drops, and altcoins won't have such large fluctuations. However, this round is different. On one hand, there are too many types of altcoins, and liquidity is very dispersed. On the other hand, VC market makers are very problematic, starting to sell off as soon as they go live. So, unless a major rally occurs, altcoins can be said to be in a continuous decline. This kind of trend is hard to defend against.
Emotions are uncontrollable
When emotions FOMO, people's judgment often deviates, whether it's influenced by their own emotions or those of others. Therefore, controlling market emotions requires constant practice.
Market makers are running away
Yesterday, the act plummeted, leading to a significant drop in many coins, and the same goes for Mask, which also experienced a sharp decline, creating a lot of panic. Additionally, this morning's wave of altcoins collectively retracing has intensified the panic. It's understandable that some market makers are running away; it's better to pull up their positions than to develop a new hot meme coin.
Ultimate shakeout
Today, altcoins are experiencing widespread declines. Personally, I think this is a wave of ultimate shakeout, as mentioned in the previous article.
It has already been mentioned that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many mainstream altcoins like SOL have all reached their bottoms. There is no reason for the market to start a sharp decline from this position, so it can only be understood as an ultimate shakeout, making retail investors completely desperate at this point before starting a new round of rally.
From March to September 2024, after half a year of fluctuations, although the amplitude is only around 10,000 points, the time period is long. This year, the goal is to wash out retail investors through huge declines, and ultimately, the aim is to clear out retail investors before starting to pump the prices.
The viewpoint is very clear: dawn has come, do not fall at this time.