BTC
Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of about $150 million yesterday, remaining in a net outflow state for three consecutive days. Bitcoin holdings are still at peak levels, and the price has retraced from over 100,000. However, the number of contract holdings has not decreased significantly. If we enter a bear market, this number of holdings will definitely decline. Currently, after breaking through 85,000, it has pulled back to 84,000. What’s the next step? For BTC, focus on 84,000 below and pressure around 86,000 above. $90,000 or $80,000?
ETH
Ethereum is nicknamed the Air Force ATM; 2000 is an insurmountable gap for you, so wait for a pullback to around 1840 to go long.
The number of Ethereum holdings has shockingly reached a historical high of over 10 million, whereas there were only 3.5 million when the price was at 4000. This means that, assuming this number of holdings remains unchanged, to return to 4000, we need to inject three times the capital to pump the price. Is that possible? It’s easier for Ethereum to drop back to 1000...
SOL
$Sol pull back to 122 to get back in; currently, there's no significant price increase, just manipulation, and liquidity is getting worse. Short-term focus on 122 below and pressure around 130 above.
The commotion at 3 AM today should be significant; the tariff event is about to land tonight. Let's see if the negative news leads to a rebound.
With light cars, it's impossible for the coin market to rise in the short term. Don't be fooled by the fact that prices have dropped significantly; those who are bottom-fishing have driven the number of mainstream holdings to a new high. This means that compared to low holding volumes, to pump the price with high holding numbers requires more money. Is that possible? This goes against common sense. In fact, every round of bottoming out before a bull market requires slowly building up from the bottom number of holdings.
The market is a slave to expectations, just like when the market anticipates a listing on Binance, the coin will rise. Once it is officially listed, it's a positive development that traders who bought in anticipation of the Binance listing will rush to sell afterward because there are no new positive expectations.
The entire US stock market has been anticipating the 'liquidity injection' moment for the past two years, and now that it's approaching, the market has reached a point where it has to 'gamble on recession.' Once the market is gambling on a 'negative' outcome, expectations will definitely push liquidity downward, further driving asset prices down. Often, the occurrence of this situation is a 'self-fulfilling prophecy.'
But I still believe that this round of 'real bull market' has not yet begun, because ultimately, whether in the crypto world or US stocks, it's a 'liquidity game,' and the 'water faucet' at the top has not yet been turned on. Once we get past this current 'gamble on recession' moment, I believe things are gonna get a lot better.
When can we get past this moment? It's when 'the person controlling the top water faucet (Fed) sees real signs of economic recession, at least the market begins to panic, and asset prices have fully priced in the signs of recession.' So everything happening in the market right now is what the person controlling the faucet is willing to see; it's all part of the plan.
That's it for today; let's quietly await the tariff policy landing.
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