$BTC The current state of the market is a bounce. And look how nervous and twitchy it is, just like a futures trader. So, the decline due to tariffs has been playing out since February when they were announced. Before the 'Death cross' intersection, there is usually a decline and a bounce.
So what do we have now? On April 4, unemployment data is coming; if it's below 4.1%, then the rate will definitely not be lowered in May, if it's higher, then there are some (few) chances.
To avoid guessing, let's assess the available data: American incomes have increased, while spending and consumer sentiment are declining, hiring is being reduced, oil production is increasing, gold as a protective asset is rapidly rising, and investors are leaving.
Honestly, it looks super for a crash and reset:
1. spending less, lower inflation, closer to a Fed rate cut;
2. producing more oil, regulating conflicts in the Middle East, the dollar and oil indices are decreasing, prices are falling, and the Fed rate can be lowered;
3. illegal immigrants are being taken away, hiring is reduced, unemployment is above 4%, below 5%, the Fed rate can be lowered.
4. tariffs are being introduced, investors are leaving, local producers are twitching, stocks are falling, which means the Fed rate can be lowered, and they will rush for loans to optimize production.
