At six o'clock in the afternoon, multiple strong altcoin coins like ACT, TST, DEXE saw declines of over 20% simultaneously, with ACT directly halving, and the liquidity of altcoins is once again on the brink of exhaustion. In correlation, the associated memes also started to flash crash, facing a heavy blow as the Bitcoin market gradually warmed up.
After deep understanding, this matter can be interpreted as a conspiracy group openly targeting another conspiracy group. The origin of the matter comes from a certain announcement at three o'clock in the afternoon, indicating that adjustments will be made to the leverage and positions of certain altcoins including ACT, which will be implemented today at six o'clock.
This means that heavy leveraged players have only three hours for position adjustment. For market makers with positions exceeding ten million, three hours for position adjustment is clearly insufficient. The consequence is that after the policy lands, the portion of bullish positions exceeding the stipulated leverage is forcibly closed, leading to a rapid expansion of the short-term price difference between ACT's spot and contract prices, causing the spot market to panic and sell off, resulting in a short-term drop driven by panic and selling sentiment.
The front-row conspiracy group is led by a certain entity as the rule-maker. It is rumored that this move is to target some professional speculative market makers who cut leeks and to control retail investors' speculative risks by reducing leverage and position sizes. The back-row conspiracy group consists of some high-control market makers of altcoins within the circle, who complete wealth transfer through long-term accumulation, pump and dump.
The starting point of a certain entity goes without saying, as the rule-maker of the market, it naturally possesses the position to lead everything. However, is today’s behavior really correct? Taking ACT as an example, the main force's accumulation period lasted nearly half a year, with the contract position rising from two months ago, recently reaching a high of 180 million, about 120% of its market value. If there were no external interference, how could it possibly use its own drill to smash its own pot?
So-called market making is fundamentally about providing basic liquidity for a certain coin and making necessary ecological and price constructions within its reasonable valuation range. Recently, a certain entity has continuously hammered a few market makers who only know how to sell but not buy. These market makers indeed deserve to be hammered, but apart from that, can the crypto market exist without market makers?
The essence of finance is wealth transfer, and the recipient of wealth has a basic requirement: they must understand the market's operating mechanism and use this mechanism to earn money within their comprehension. If continuous external forces interfere with the operation of this mechanism, it will ultimately lead to both buyers and sellers becoming losers, while a small group of those with insight become the ready harvesters. Like Trump, like Milei, and now like a certain entity!
The top player mentioned on Twitter in the evening that they are retrieving data from that time for further understanding and expressed that they feel innocent. As mentioned above by the others, everyone knows that reducing leverage and positions in altcoins, and controlling retail investors' speculative risks is the right thing to do. However, for such a large group, the world's strongest crypto team, can you really say you didn't know the on-chain data situation when formulating policies? I remember when the TRB position was twice its market value, with more than ten times the increase in half a year.
On the macro side, a slight positive signal has been released. Goldman Sachs expects the annual core PCE growth rate to be 3.5%, an increase of 0.5% from previous expectations, and anticipates three interest rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the strongest tariff risk lands tomorrow, the market will start to develop in a constructive direction.
On-chain data indicators are currently showing two extremes. The first extreme is that nearly 75% of addresses are close to zero, with actual profit data representing less than 1% of total address data; the second extreme is that the volume of stablecoins participating in certain on-chain financial products far exceeds that of the same period last year, indicating that hot money in the market has not only not decreased but has actually increased this year. The understanding is that retail investors who are losing or even going to zero occupy the majority of the market share, while those still in the market are gradually reducing their token holdings and mainly holding stablecoins to wait for future opportunities, occasionally participating in on-chain financial activities for appropriate capital appreciation.
The crypto market is the greatest innovation in the financial sector since the 21st century. Since Trump started, this circle has gradually evolved from a utopian, dream-building base, a cypherpunk worldview, into a bloody PVP among retail investors—a paradise where market makers swing their sickles freely. What once scorned the big A in Crypto has slowly become a joke.
BTC: Bitcoin continues yesterday's judgment. After the bottom short liquidity was swept away, there was a brief warm-up. Currently, it is within the bullish warming trend line on the hourly and four-hour charts, and it is expected to continue testing the resistance level of 86,000 points. Tomorrow, the influence of news will be significant. From the perspective of Trump's policy implementation in the past, there will be some discrepancies between the final chips and previous slogans. It is expected that the bulls will continue to breathe, and further developments will depend on liquidity conditions. The intra-day pressure level is 86,000 points, with support at 81,800 points.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, and funds in the L2 sector are once again active. Although the market has not kept up, in the long run, if funds can gradually return to the Ethereum ecosystem, it may also be a significant improvement.
Altcoin part: The lesson from ACT is huge; with a change in policy, everyone becomes a loser. The lesson learned here is that even in spot trading, necessary stop-losses must be made. Compared to partners who suffered a halving in the market, those who set sell stop-losses and executed them are still lucky. In the future, pay attention to the data announcements from the top player in the evening to see her statements. Next, observe the state of capital reflux from the on-chain main force. If the main force has passively cleared positions, there should still be some movements. Also, if the chips fall below previous lows, must exit. COMP saw a burst today, with the market makers selling 50,000 units in a favorable trend, and now completely disregarding the pattern. For altcoins worth tens of millions, the community is currently sorting things out. From the current perspective, relatively safe chips have not seen major declines, just waiting in a reasonable valuation range with a certain ecological narrative. As for memes, apart from a few old names with strong crypto consensus, those that have emerged this year have hardly participated, and I believe they are likely to follow a one-way trend. Other discussions can be exchanged in the comments.
The fear and greed index for today is 34.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot!
