Dear colleagues,
Today, the topic of Telegram projects awaiting listings this spring came up again. Here is my analysis of the BLUM project.
Context for BLUM
BLUM is a hybrid exchange that integrates centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) functionalities, launched as a mini-app on Telegram in April 2024. The project has garnered significant attention with over 30 million users and backing from Binance Labs through the MVB VII program. Currently, the $BLUM token is in a pre-market phase on exchanges like Gate.io and BingX, providing some insight into its early price levels.
Factors for the Guess
1. **Pre-Market Price**:
- According to data from X and web sources, $BLUM is trading at a pre-market price of around $0.00087 on BingX (as of March 2025) and around $0.026 on other platforms. However, this is pre-listing and reflects speculation rather than open-market liquidity.
- Gate.io started pre-market trading on October 16, 2024, with prices ranging between $0.02 and $0.05 according to various predictions.
2. **Total Token Supply and Market Cap**:
- The total supply of $BLUM is 10 billion tokens (per coingabbar.com). Assuming an initial circulating supply of 10% (1 billion tokens), the market cap at listing will depend on the starting price.
- Successful meme tokens or hyped projects often launch with market caps between $10 million and $1 billion.
3. **Comparison with Other Projects**:
- **Notcoin (NOT)**: Launched at around $0.01 with a $1 billion market cap, thanks to its massive Telegram community (55 million users). BLUM, with 30 million users, might follow a similar pattern.
- **Bonk (BONK)**: Peaked at $0.000045 after listing, starting from a much lower base ($0.0000001), suggesting potential for rapid growth with strong interest.
4. **Hype and Market Expectations**:
- Predictions for $BLUM vary widely. Some sources (e.g., CoinGabbar) forecast a starting price of $0.05 to $0.1667, while others (X posts) mention higher levels like $0.5 or even $1, though this seems exaggerated for a launch.
- Support from Binance Labs increases the likelihood of a listing on a major exchange like Binance, which could boost demand.
Guess for Listing Price
Based on the above, here’s my estimate:
- **Likely Starting Price**: $0.03 – $0.08
- **Reasoning**:
- Pre-market levels ($0.02–$0.026) indicate a baseline, but a listing on a major exchange typically causes a spike due to liquidity and visibility. A price of $0.03–$0.08 suggests a market cap between $30 million and $80 million with 1 billion circulating tokens, which is realistic for a project of this scale and community.
- The comparison with Notcoin supports this range, though BLUM has a stronger foundation (hybrid exchange vs. pure meme token).
- **Potential Short-Term Peak**: If the hype is strong, the price could jump to $0.15–$0.20 in the first few days post-listing before stabilizing.
- **Optimistic Scenario**: $0.1667 (as predicted by CoinGabbar)
- This would imply a market cap of $166.7 million with 1 billion tokens, possible if Binance announces a listing and the hype is massive.
- **Pessimistic Scenario**: $0.01 or less
- If the market is in a bearish phase or the listing is only on smaller exchanges, the price could stay low.
Conclusion
My best guess is that $BLUM will start between **$0.03 and $0.08** upon listing, with potential for a quick rise to $0.20 if market conditions are favorable and the community remains active.
