On April 1, the crypto world experienced 'April Fool's Day panic.' After Bitcoin opened below $80,000, it barely closed around $83,000 with a rebound in U.S. stocks, while altcoins continued to struggle at the bottom.
The Nasdaq opened lower but rose after breaking the previous low, with the price coming to the 2-day EMA200 position, which is a position that is very easy to rebound. It is expected that with the introduction of tariff policies, there will be a rebound as the bad news is fully priced in, but the market has not yet hit bottom.
The upper pressure level for BTC is around $91,000, and the short-term support level is around $74,000.
As long as it doesn't break the previous low, Bitcoin might still follow the rhythm of 2023.
Once it breaks down, it means the rhythm is broken, and the structure is invalid.
Next, either reconstruct a new range or directly move into a downward trend; it will no longer be a 'replica,' but rather a repricing.
My personal thoughts:
Before confirming that the structure is broken, respect the rebound; once confirmed to break down, switch to defense immediately without hesitation.
Countdown to tariffs, a showdown between bulls and bears is imminent.
Tomorrow, Trump will announce reciprocal tariff policies in the White House Rose Garden, and market sentiment has dropped to freezing point. Looking back at the tariff news leak on March 28, the Dow Jones plummeted 700 points, and Bitcoin's single-day decline exceeded 5%.
But historical experience shows that bad news often leads to a retaliatory rebound:
After the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in 2024, Bitcoin rebounded 12% within 24 hours. The current market has been under the shadow of tariffs for three consecutive months. If policy strength falls short of expectations, it may trigger a recovery trend of 'bad news fully priced in.'
Whales are secretly maneuvering, altcoins are stirring.
On-chain data shows that Sun Yuchen minted 1 billion USDD on the Tron chain yesterday. This kind of 'whale buying' action is usually seen as a signal of market recovery.
In the past week, the net outflow of altcoin exchanges surged by 43%, and the locked value of DeFi protocols stopped declining and began to recover. Notably, a whale address on the Solana chain bought over 1 billion Dogecoin at $0.16, and ETH whale holdings also rebounded near the $1800 bottom.
Today's biggest winner is EOS, with a surge of 15.11%, followed closely by Curve DAO and HYPE.
EOS price: +15.11%
CRV price: +13.11%
HYPE price: +9.10%
April nuclear warning: three major risks overlap.
Tariff black swan: If Trump introduces aggressive tariff policies, global risk assets may flash crash, and Bitcoin could test the strong support at $74,000.
The Federal Reserve turns hawkish: If the April meeting maintains a rate hike tone, tightening liquidity will severely impact the highly volatile cryptocurrency market.
Miner selling spree: After the Bitcoin halving, miner earnings are halved, and daily selling pressure exceeding 2000 coins will continue to suppress prices.
Final reminder: There are no 'forever bulls' in the crypto world, only 'forever profits.' When everyone is crazy, you should be fearful. When the market is desperate, you should be greedy— but for now, just survive until April!
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