On the first day of April, people in the crypto world feel the chill of the market amid April Fool's jokes.
Bitcoin attempted to break through $83,500 last night but failed, and this morning it retraced to the mid-line support before starting to oscillate; Ethereum has been fluctuating around the $1,850 mark, with both long and short positions in a stalemate. The worst hit is Dogecoin — after Musk clarified the boundary between government departments and cryptocurrencies, the price of DOGE plummeted by 5% to $0.16, making retail investors standing guard at the historic high of $0.74 a joke.
BTC
Let's first look at the 2-hour level analysis of Bitcoin. After breaking through the 2-hour midline last night, it directly attempted to hit the upper line but failed. This morning, it effectively retraced to the mid-line support. Today, the focus is on the situation of attempting to hit around 83,200-83,500 again. First, give a thumbs up to support and then slowly understand:
- Script 1: If the attack fails again, forming a small-level triple top, it is very likely to continue to crash, possibly breaking the 2-hour lower line and reaching the daily support level.
- Script 2: If we see another increase in volume that breaks through the 2-hour upper line and stabilizes, we can see the daily pressure level around 87-88k, which is also a good entry point for us on the right side.
ETH
The Ethereum market is somewhat close to Bitcoin, having dropped from 2100 with no breakthrough of the 2-hour Bollinger midline, which is a typical downward trend. Blindly trying to catch the bottom at this time could lead to being buried. After breaking through the 2-hour midline last night, it attempted to break the upper line but failed. Currently, it's retracing to the mid-line for effective support. From a trend standpoint, there are signs of reversal, but it still needs to break and stabilize above the upper line for formal confirmation. Today, the focus is on whether it can break and stabilize above 1850; if it can't, it will continue to drop.
DOGE
Musk made it clear at the town hall meeting that the Federal Government Efficiency Department (DOGE) has no connection with the cryptocurrency Dogecoin. This statement directly shattered the fantasy of 'government endorsement'. On-chain data shows that in the past week, more than 230 million DOGE net flowed out of exchanges, and the number of whale addresses holding more than 100,000 DOGE decreased by 17%.
The current altcoin market is bleak. Since February, only a few coins like TST and Mubarak have briefly surged, while most projects have become small-scale operations.
Data shows that ordinary investors need to sift through 4,000 targets to find one 'Golden Dog', and even professional players need to place 400 bets to hit.
The market is self-adjusting: As more and more people try to 'sit idle' in ambush, the leading funds will instead create traps. The primary market is increasingly unable to accommodate an excess of speculators.
Three pieces of advice for investors: Beware of narrative traps.
Any surge detached from fundamentals is a bubble, especially for coins strongly tied to policies and celebrities;
Pay attention to on-chain data: Net flow of exchanges and changes in whale holdings reflect real supply and demand better than K-line charts.
Sticking to the ability circle: In the crypto market, Bitcoin and Ethereum are the ones that can navigate through bull and bear cycles, while other coins should be watched more than acted upon.
The cruel rule of the crypto world is always: when big players start promoting, it often marks the beginning of a harvest. Staying awake and aware is crucial to laughing all the way to the end in this wealth game.
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