Advisor discusses hot topics:
As the first quarter ends, most friends were actually hoping that Chuanzi could create a big news event to boost altcoins, but let's not talk about that. Today is also the first day of the second quarter, gold prices are still rising, and Bitcoin is holding up relatively well, as the advisor has always been optimistic about Bitcoin.
However, apart from Bitcoin, the advisor is really too lazy to touch other cryptocurrencies right now. The reason is that the shadow of recession in the US is still there. The Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, and Chuanzi's tariff policies change faster than flipping a book.
So the advisor's plan for the second quarter is not to operate in the spot market. Of course, if Bitcoin makes a sudden spike of over ten thousand points, I would still be tempted to enter early. But we must respect the market, believe in cycles, and generally just go with the trend!
Currently, Bitcoin's issue is not that its market cap is too small, but that its liquidity is poor. When those long-term holding whales start accumulating, the emotions of us short-term players can drive the price up and down. So right now, the market relies entirely on events to drive it.
Although US stocks and Bitcoin are different, the general direction is still similar. The key is whether these events can revitalize liquidity; if they can, a reversal may occur; if not, it's just a rebound, a fleeting moment.
Additionally, regarding last night's Nasdaq opening, it opened quite low but MSTR had a strong recovery. This is because it dropped a big news bomb on X, saying it recently bought over 20,000 Bitcoins.
Once this news broke, the market started to get excited, and Bitcoin directly rebounded during US trading hours. So don't think that Bitcoin didn't fall with US stocks last night; it was simply playing along with MSTR's stock price.
In the late night, Bitcoin dropped from 83850 to around 82300 this morning. Why? It's simple, MSTR closed down 0.39% on Monday; a drop is a drop, the direction is set. There was a rebound earlier in the night, but it came back down by morning.
So why did it stabilize at 82300? Because MSTR didn't drop much, just 0.39%, and BTC's support point below 83,000 is around 82400, so it held there when it retraced this morning.
If MSTR drops more than 3%, it is likely to break 82,000 directly today. Since it didn't drop much, it probably won't fall much during the day; that late-night drop is about done, and it is unlikely to hit new lows today.
As for what will happen tonight? First, we need to prepare for both sides on the news front; no one dares to just look one way. Today's Bitcoin has already reached the 0.618 retracement position for the morning; that late-night rebound looked quite strong, with a high of only 83850.
So no matter how it swings, going short at highs won't trap you. But if you get itchy and chase longs at the sight of a rebound, you might be in trouble; a quick upward spike followed by a quick drop can easily leave you trapped near the highs.
Advisor looks at the trend:
Resistance level reference:
First resistance level: 84000
Second resistance level: 83500
Support level reference:
First support level: 82200
Second support level: 81500
Today's suggestion:
At the current time point, it has temporarily stabilized in the range of 82 to 82.2K, so we can expect a short-term rebound within the day and test the first resistance level. If there is an adjustment at the first resistance of 83.5K during the rebound, we need to pay attention to whether the adjustment is reasonable and guard against a large bearish candle.
The current important range is 82 to 82.2K, and if this range is broken again, there may be a disappointing sell-off that accelerates the decline, so it is advised to set this as an important area of concern.
If the first support is broken and a lower shadow appears, do not set it as a short-term bottom and chase longs when it turns into resistance after breaking.
At this current time point, it has held above 82K, maintaining the view of a short-term upward trend line rebound.
If the rebound is successful, adjustments can be considered in the first resistance range. After making short positions, attention should be paid to the K-line pattern on the upward trend line.
And then re-enter for rebound opportunities.
4.1 Advisor's Segment Plan:
Long entry reference: currently not referenced
Short entry reference: light short in the range of 84000-84500; target: 82200-81500
